But since "Homeland"'s focus shifted this season, from the pressure on Carrie to the pressure on Brody, Lewis might take home a trophy. Plus, he's a Brit and this is the Hollywood Foreign Press, who tend to reward those things.
Best performance by an actor in a television series -- comedy or musical
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association awarded this honor to Matt LeBlanc for "Episodes" last year, but the show hasn't held up. This gives previous winner and perpetual nominee Alec Baldwin the favorite position -- especially given that this is the last season of "30 Rock."
However, his competition includes Louis C.K. who is more identified with his program -- and not just because it's his name. He's the creator, writer, director, producer, editor and star of the show and won Emmys for acting, writing and directing "Louie" this last go-round. Baldwin may win, but Louis C.K. should win.
Best performance by an actress in a television series -- comedy or musical
The nominees this year include returnees Zooey Deschanel (for "New Girl"), Tina Fey (for "30 Rock") and Amy Poehler (for "Parks and Recreation"), plus two stars of two new shows: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (for "Veep") and Lena Dunham (for "Girls").
If Deschanel, Fey and Poehler couldn't beat winner Laura Dern last year, they don't provide much competition, even if two of them are Golden Globes co-hosts. Though sentimental value (the last season of "30 Rock"!) might boost both Baldwin and Fey, she doesn't think she'll win; she casts her vote for BFF Poehler.
We think it's more likely, however, that Louis-Dreyfus will take it, given her Emmy win and "Veep" creator Armando Iannucci's U.K. roots (again, foreign press decides this one). But the one we're rooting for is Dunham, who plays a character who feels more real and authentic than most of what's on television.
Best performance by an actress in a mini-series or motion picture made for television
"Game Change" may or may not win, but Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin will, even if her competition is Nicole Kidman ("Hemingway & Gellhorn"), Jessica Lange ("American Horror Story: Asylum"), Sienna Miller ("The Girl") and Sigourney Weaver ("Political Animals").
"Julianne Moore put so much heart and soul in that," her director Ray Roach said. "There's so much political masking that goes on, you need someone who is a fully engaged human being first and foremost, beyond a candidate, and I thought Julianne did an amazing job." So did the Emmys.
Best performance by an actor in a mini-series or motion picture made for television
Like Julianne Moore, Woody Harrelson will probably take this category.
But also in the running are Emmy-winner Kevin Costner for "Hatfield & McCoys," Benedict Cumberbatch for "Sherlock," Toby Jones for "The Girl" and Clive Owen for "Hemingway & Gellhorn."
"Game Change" is a little too much of an American story for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to sweep, so they might be willing to give this one to a more deserving Brit -- Cumberbatch. His modern-day Sherlock Holmes is enigmatic, charismatic and wholly singular. Plus, it's his year, what with also playing the mysterious villain in the new "Star Trek" movie and the dragon and the Necromancer in "The Hobbit."
Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in a series, mini-series or motion picture made for television
After this past season of "Homeland," is there any question who should win?
Still, Mandy Patinkin has some worthy rivals, including Ed Harris for "Game Change" (and he just might win), Eric Stonestreet for "Modern Family" (an awards favorite for comedy, but unfortunately he's going against the drama guys), Danny Huston for "Magic City" and Max Greenfield for "New Girl."
Patinkin plays his character Saul with such nuance, fans of the show are still guessing whether or not he's the mole in the CIA -- complicated by his rise in power at the end of last season. "I have my own theory," Patinkin told CNN. "As a matter of fact, I write my own theories underneath everything I say. And part of the fun for me is when I hit bingo, and get what the writers were doing."
Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in a series, mini-series or motion picture made for television