It's no wonder that the nominees have been modest and circumspect about their chances, nobody more so than Affleck. Though he's a producer of "Argo," which means he'll get to accept a Best Picture trophy if the film wins, he's attracted far more attention for being ignored for Best Director than he ever would have for being nominated.

"I just feel so incredibly honored to be nominated as a producer for this movie, to be here at the big party," he told reporters at the Oscar luncheon in early February. "I don't get into worrying too much about who got what and who didn't get what. I mean, I've had many, many, many, many, many, many years watching from home."

But despite some observers already instructing Affleck to prepare yet another list of thank-yous, don't assume "Argo" the movie will reign as triumphant as its risk-taking characters, said Davis. Sure, it's good. But Best Picture? That's something else entirely.

"I'm hearing a little bit, that when 'Argo' started winning everything, some people started scratching their heads," he said. "'Really? That's what I'm supposed to be picking?'"

The 85th Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday on ABC. The show will air from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.