JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida shows that support for the pension tax plan is not universal.
Support for Mayor Lenny Curry’s pension tax is a mixed bag, with 41 percent of respondents who strongly or somewhat approve, 33 percent who strongly or somewhat oppose and 26 percent who still don’t know. Support and opposition for the pension tax is relatively uniform across party affiliations.
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“Mayor Curry still has some work to do garnering votes for the pension tax, but there is reason for optimism since support outweighs opposition by 8 percentage points,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director.
Regarding job approval of local leadership, Curry fared well with 69 percent of likely voters who strongly or somewhat approve of his performance as mayor. Not surprisingly, more Republicans than Democrats approve of Curry, but the vast majority of respondents approve of Curry regardless of party affiliation.
“The mayor is enjoying extremely high levels of job approval through the first year of his term. It will be interesting to see if Curry can parlay his political capital into a passing vote on the pension tax ballot measure,” said Binder.
Curry recently released a new TV advertisement explaining why voters should vote “yes” on a half-cent sales tax to pay off the city’s multibillion-dollar pension deficit.
“I promised to tell you the truth, and solve tough problems. Well, Jacksonville is on the brink of real economic danger,” Curry said in the ad.
Rick Mullaney, director of the Jacksonville University Public Policy Institute, worked for decades in city government. He said he believes lobbying voters will be key for Curry.
"The polling numbers suggest there's a great deal of work to do in the African-American community, in particular. And there's a great deal of work to do in educating voters just how important an issue this is," Mullaney said.
Mullaney and Binder both agree the poll should encourage Curry, and also light a fire under the new pension tax campaign.
"They have a lot of money kind of sitting there, waiting to be spent. It will be interesting to see how this campaign is done and how they try to reach these voters and convince them 'yes' is the way to go," Binder said.
Mike Williams also has widespread approval, with 72 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat approving of his job as Jacksonville’s sheriff.
“Like Mayor Curry, Williams has strong support among whites and Republicans, but the majority of blacks and Democrats also approve of how he is handling his duties,” noted Binder.
The Jacksonville City Council and the Superintendent of Duval County Schools, Nikolai Vitti, garnered the approval (strongly or somewhat) of about half of the sample, whereas roughly 30 percent disapprove of the job they are doing and 20 percent don’t know.
Clerk of Court incumbent Ronnie Fussell will be on the ballot in November after gaining notoriety last year for canceling all Duval County courthouse wedding ceremonies when same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide. Currently, 39 percent of Duval County likely voters strongly or somewhat approve of Fussell’s performance on the job, 10 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove, while more than half of respondents, 51 percent, are unsure.
“Though Fussell won’t be on the ballot in August, he will be in November and his current level of job approval bodes well for him,” said Binder.
When asked about the most important problem facing Jacksonville, 38 percent said it’s crime, 16 percent think it is the economy/jobs and 15 percent selected education. Further analysis shows differences between races, with more than half, 54 percent, of black likely voters who think crime is the most important problem compared with 34 percent of white likely voters; and only 2 percent of black likely voters perceive the public pension problem as the most important, in contrast to 18 percent of white likely voters.
“Similar to our spring 2015 Jax Speaks survey of Duval likely voters, crime is the most important problem facing Jacksonville,” said Binder. “The 20-point difference between white and black likely voters is striking, as is the discrepancy between white and black opinion on the importance of the pension problem. Perhaps that points to the racial differences in levels of support for the proposition, if the black community doesn’t think the pension debt is a big problem, then it makes sense they would be less likely to support a tax to pay for it.”
In the wake of the Orlando massacre, support for a Human Rights Ordinance in Duval County runs high. The majority of likely voters support expanding the HRO to include anti-discrimination protection on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity or expression in the areas of housing, employment and public accommodations. However, this support varies widely across party lines, with more than 70 percent of Democrats and those with other party affiliations who support the HRO compared with only 38 percent of Republicans.
“The PORL has been running surveys on the HRO for several years. This is the first time that Republicans have had a net negative for the HRO,” noted Binder. “I can only surmise that the bathroom debate has eroded support among Republican super voters.”
Duval County Likely Voters Survey Results
Do you support or oppose the referendum to be presented to Jacksonville voters in the Aug. 30 primary election that reads: “Permanently closing up to three of the City’s underfunded defined benefit retirement plans, increasing the employee contribution for those plans to a minimum of 10 percent, and ending the Better Jacksonville half-cent sales tax are all required to adopt a half-cent sales tax solely dedicated to reducing the City’s unfunded pension liability. Shall such pension liability sales tax, which ends upon elimination of the unfunded pension liability or in 30 years maximum, be adopted?”
| Pension Tax n= 553 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Support | 18% |
| Somewhat Support | 23% |
| Somewhat Oppose | 14% |
| Strongly Oppose | 19% |
| Don’t Know | 26% |
| Pension Tax and Party Affiliation n= 553 | Likely Republican Voters | Likely Democrat Voters | Likely NPA/Other Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 43% | 39% | 36% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 31% | 34% | 45% |
| Don’t Know | 26% | 27% | 19% |
| Pension Tax and Race n=553 | Likely White Voters | Likely Black Voters | Likely Other Race Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 44% | 35% | 27% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 32% | 34% | 50% |
| Don’t Know | 25% | 31% | 23% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Lenny Curry is handling his job as Mayor of Jacksonville?
| Lenny Curry Job Approval n= 572 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Approve | 30% |
| Somewhat Approve | 39% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 10% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 7% |
| Don’t Know | 15% |
| Lenny Curry Job Approval and Party Affiliation n= 572 | Likely Republican Voters | Likely Democrat Voters | Likely NPA/Other Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 81% | 52% | 50% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 6% | 32% | 26% |
| Don’t Know | 13% | 16% | 24% |
| Lenny Curry Job Approval and Race n= 572 | Likely White Voters | Likely Black Voters | Likely Other Race Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 72% | 61% | 42% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 14% | 23% | 35% |
| Don’t Know | 14% | 17% | 23% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Williams is handling his job as Jacksonville’s Sheriff?
| Mike Williams Job Approval n=578 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Approve | 35% |
| Somewhat Approve | 37% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 8% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 5% |
| Don’t Know | 14% |
| Mike Williams Job Approval and Party Affiliation n= 578 | Likely Republican Voters | Likely Democrat Voters | Likely NPA/Other Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 83% | 61% | 47% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 7% | 22% | 25% |
| Don’t Know | 11% | 17% | 28% |
| Mike Williams Job Approval and Race n= 578 | Likely White Voters | Likely Black Voters | Likely Other Race Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 78% | 60% | 42% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 9% | 27% | 27% |
| Don’t Know | 13% | 13% | 31% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Jacksonville City Council is handling its job?
| Jacksonville City Council Job Approval n=570 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Approve | 7% |
| Somewhat Approve | 41% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 18% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 14% |
| Don’t Know | 19% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nikolai Vitti is handling his job as the Duval County Superintendent of Schools?
| Nikolai Vitti Job Approval n=573 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Approve | 19% |
| Somewhat Approve | 31% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 15% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 19% |
| Don’t Know | 17% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ronnie Fussell is handling his job as Clerk of Courts?
| Ronnie Fussell Job Approval n=553 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Approve | 14% |
| Somewhat Approve | 25% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 5% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 5% |
| Don’t Know | 51% |
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing Jacksonville?
| Most Important Problem Facing Jacksonville n=596 | Likely Voters |
| Improving the Downtown Area | 4% |
| Education | 15% |
| Improving Transportation and Infrastructure | 6% |
| Crime | 38% |
| Solving the Public Pension Problem | 14% |
| Economy/Jobs | 16% |
| Something Else | 4% |
| Don’t Know | 2% |
| Most important problem facing Jacksonville and Race | White Likely Voters | Black Likely Voters | Other Race Likely Voters |
| Improving the Downtown Area | 4% | 3% | 5% |
| Education | 16% | 12% | 19% |
| Improving Transportation and Infrastructure | 7% | 3% | 21% |
| Crime | 34% | 54% | 29% |
| Solving the Public Pension Problem | 18% | 2% | 4% |
| Economy/Jobs | 16% | 19% | 15% |
| Something Else | 4% | 5% | - |
| Don’t Know | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Do you support or oppose the City of Jacksonville expanding the city’s human-rights ordinance to include anti-discrimination protection on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity or expression in the areas of housing, employment and public accommodations?
| HRO n=554 | Likely Voters |
| Strongly Support | 38% |
| Somewhat Support | 18% |
| Somewhat Oppose | 11% |
| Strongly Oppose | 26% |
| Don’t Know | 8% |
| HRO and Party Affiliation n=554 | Likely Republican Voters | Likely Democrat Voters | Likely NPA/Other Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 38% | 77% | 70% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 51% | 17% | 30% |
| Don’t Know | 11% | 5% | - |
| HRO and Race n=554
| Duval County Likely White Voters | Duval County Likely Black Voters | Duval County Likely Other Race Voters |
| Strongly/Support | 50% | 67% | 73% |
| Strongly/Somewhat Oppose | 41% | 26% | 19% |
| Don’t Know | 9% | 7% | 8% |
Methodology
The Duval County poll was conducted, Tuesday June 28, through Thursday June 30, by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by Duval County’s Supervisor of Elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 596 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in either four out of the last five statewide elections (presidential preference primary in 2016, statewide primary elections in 2012 and 2014 and general elections in 2012 and 2014). Voters who voted in at least the 2014 statewide primary election and newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would “Definitely Vote” or “Probably Vote” in August’s primary election.