Chance of a shutdown: 75%
Chance of a default: 50%
"As bad as a shutdown is, it's not as devastating as a default and I think Republicans are willing to go there. It would be bad, but the sun will still rise in the morning," Kessler said.
As for raising the country's borrowing limit, Kessler also finds it hard to be sanguine.
During the 2011 debt ceiling fight, he could see a way out. This time he sees more chance for "chaos than resolution."
"I think there's a very real possibility that we default on some obligations, experience very bad market turmoil, and then quickly pass a debt deal that could possibly cost Boehner his speakership."