Political experts react to UNF poll

Numbers show Donald Trump with a slight lead over Ben Carson

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Republican race continues to heat up in Election 2016. A new poll from the University of North Florida shows that among Republicans in Florida, Donald Trump holds only a slight lead to Ben Carson.

More than 600 likely Republican voters were polled in the state by UNF students in the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

In the pool of likely voters, Trump held the lead with 21.7 percent and Carson took second with 19.3 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio came in third with 14.9 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush trailed at a distance 9 percent of the vote.

"He's not leading by as much in this survey as he is in others, and I think that might be a testament to a bit of the shine starting to wear off of him a little," Dr. Michael Binder said. Binder is an assistant political science professor at UNF and helped oversee the poll.

News4Jax political analyst Jennifer Carroll said she was surprised by some of the findings.

"With his support in Florida as a two-term governor and with all that he's done with his record here, it's very surprising to see (Bush's) numbers are so low in the state of Florida," Carroll said.

Trump will soon have a new spotlight on him as he makes a campaign visit to Jacksonville on Saturday. He will be the first Republican presidential hopeful to make a stop in Northeast Florida.

"You can't win the state without coming to Northeast Florida," Carroll said. "He's a smart marketer and knows exactly how people respond to being the first out of the box. Throughout his campaign he's been the first to do a number of things that has resonated with the public to show that he is different."

Many expect Trump to talk about the economy, terrorism and immigration, the top three problems that likely Republican voters pointed to in the UNF poll as the country's top issues.

"Immigration is typically not the top three issue and the fact that it is speaks to what Donald Trump has brought into this election and has brought this issue up," Binder said.

Honesty in the campaigns was also a concern for voters in the poll. Twenty-five percent of the likely Republican voters polled said honesty was the No. 1 characteristic they're looking for in the next presidential candidate.

"That's a really big number for a question that's a wide-open blank canvas," Binder said. "Open-ended question, there weren't answers to choose from and that was the leading category and you might begin to see that kind of stuff trip into the campaign 'so and so is honest or dishonest.'"

UNF is polling a group of likely Democratic voters with the same questions regarding the Democratic presidential hopefuls. Those results are expected to be released Wednesday.

UNF Poll: Trump would top primary vote in Florida

Donald Trump would win the Republican primary in Florida if the vote was held today, according to a new University of North Florida statewide poll.

UNF polled Republican primary likely voters and found that Trump would garner the most votes with 21.7 percent. The poll shows Ben Carson closing in with 19.3 percent, while Marco Rubio comes in third with 14.9 percent and Jeb Bush is a distant fourth with 9 percent of the vote.

When respondents were asked who their second choice would be, 20.1 percent of respondents selected Rubio. Carson held the second position with 14.9 percent, followed by Carly Fiorina with 11.1 percent and Bush with 10.2 percent. Only 6 percent of voters had Trump as their second choice.

When asked about candidate favorability, 52.5 percent of Republican primary likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 39.9 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Regarding Bush, 64.9 percent have a favorable opinion and 28.8 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Rubio is more popular as 81.1 percent of the respondents view him favorably, while only 13 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Republican primary likely voters think the economy, jobs and unemployment (35.4 percent) are the most important problem facing the United States today, followed by terrorism (18.1 percent) and immigration (13.5 percent).

When asked about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the U.S., 23.4 percent of Republican primary likely voters think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time, while 19 percent think the government should make them all felons and send them back to their home country. About 8 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

Another 38.5 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines, and 7.1 percent think the government should allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory, through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at UNF, conducted the telephone survey. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that has conducted more than 120 research projects since its opening in 2001. Those projects include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys. The PORL is a Charter Member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection.

A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Republican likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections).

Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household. For non-completes with a working residential or cellphone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from Oct. 8 through Oct. 13 and included 641 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.87 percent. Race, age and gender were weighted to reflect the adult registered Republican likely voter population in Florida.