TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Gov. Rick Scott and lawmakers will have more than $600 million in extra money as they craft budget proposals for next year, according to a draft report issued Tuesday by economic forecasters.
The projection included in the Long-Range Financial Outlook, which will be considered by a legislative committee next week, marks the first official estimate of the state's surplus after accounting for continuing expenses and other spending decisions lawmakers generally make each year.
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For the 2016-2017 budget year that begins July 1, there will be an estimated $635.4 million left, after normal spending and $1 billion in reserves --- meant to help cushion the state against unexpected expenses --- are taken care of. However, about $426.8 million of that surplus would come from one-time money.
The surplus is expected to decline after the 2016-2017 budget year, with the state having $583.7 million the next year and $222.2 million the year after that, with all of the leftovers being one-time money. Part of that is due to the continuing cost of recent tax cuts supported by Scott and Republican lawmakers.
Because the state's economists issue new forecasts on a regular basis, it is likely that the numbers for outlying years will be adjusted up or down.
The numbers released Tuesday will provide a framework for Scott's budget request, expected before the end of the year. Lawmakers will return to Tallahassee in January for an earlier-than-usual annual session and will negotiate a final spending plan.
Senate President Andy Gardiner, R-Orlando, said in a memo to senators that the new outlook "demonstrates the feasibility of increasing per student funding to the highest level in state history" --- a goal of Scott's that lawmakers missed reaching last year. The State Board of Education has said it will make a similar request for the coming year.
Gardiner said he would ask the Senate's budget writers to aim for $250 million in tax cuts, in part because of the projections about outlying years.
"This level of tax relief would further our ongoing commitment to reducing the burden of taxes and fees on Florida's families and businesses, while also taking into account the impact on future budget years. … We have a responsibility to make spending decisions that maintain structural balance within our budget while being mindful of the impact current spending decisions will have in future years," he said.
That would be less than the $372.4 million that the Legislature slashed for the current budget year, which was in turn less than Scott proposed in his budget to help fulfill a campaign promise of $1 billion in cuts over two years.
House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island, was less specific in a statement issued by his office about the financial outlook.
"This is further evidence that our conservative fiscal principles are working," he said. "The House will remain focused on keeping Florida the best state in the nation to create jobs, cutting taxes for hard-working Floridians, and balancing our state's budget."