Almost August, when tropical activity picks up

One area of disturbed weather is just east of Jacksonville

One in the Eastern Pacific, could quickly become a major hurricane and threaten Hawaii. The two in the Atlantic will barely survive, or not...

JACKSONVILLE, Fla – The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but for many, many hurricane seasons, the very first hurricane doesn't develop until August.  So far this year we have already seen three tropical storms. That's not to say we will see a hurricane next week, but hurricane forecasters are tracking three systems, one of which could develop into a major hurricane that could threaten Hawaii.

El Nino (a massive warming of the equatorial Pacific waters) has been strengthening the past six months and is estimated to become one of the strongest on record (records go back about 70 years). Powerful el Nino's tend to dramatically suppress Hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. The tropical Atlantic would be from Mexico, east through the Caribbean Sea and then further east to the African coast.

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Historically, this is also the area where some of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded have developed.  So, if this area is shutdown, it tends to mean there will be few, if any, of those long tracking major hurricanes that can ultimately impact the United States.

Plus, the tropical Atlantic is also dealing with below normal water temperatures. Super warm waters are a requirement for major hurricanes, but at the moment these waters are actually cooler than what is considered warm enough to support a major hurricane (84°). 

Finally, high pressure has been pushed south over this region as well.  High pressure is a drying process, an obvious hurricane suppressant.  

Add it all up, and with my fingers crossed, we won't see any hurricanes this month.

What about September? October? Well, let's get through the first week of August.