As we move into October, we will have completed two-thirds of the Atlantic hurricane season and what an anemic season it has been.
As of September 27th, we have had nine named storms and two hurricanes. Neither hurricane surpassed category one status and did little to boost our accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the year. ACE is a measurement of energy in the tropical Atlantic (including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) that accounts for both the strength of a system as well as the longevity. The 2013 saw neither long lived or mighty hurricanes.
According to Dr. Ryan Maue with WeatherBell Analytics, normal ACE for the Atlantic basin through September 27th is 79. We currently sit at 23.055. That means we have observed only 29% of the normal energy for this year; the quietest since 1994. The Atlantic isn't the lone ranger though. Global accumulated cyclone energy is below normal levels in every basin including the western Pacific, eastern Pacific and Indian oceans.
I speak haphazardly because we still have two months of the season left to go. Afterall, the season doesn't end until November 30th and while not common, we've seen development as late (or early) as January as evidence of the 2005 season.
Looking ahead to the long range models, there is a low that is moving up the east coast, which is currently the nor'easter off of Jacksonville. This low is expected to move up into the northeast where a transition to a hybrid tropical system can't be ruled out. At this time though, development is not anticipated by the National Hurricane Center.
The bigger story for us locally is the cool temperatures! Thursday's high was only 77 degrees; the coolest high temperature since May 6th. We're going to continue to see the cooler air filter into the area through all of next week with highs only in the low 80s and those overnight lows into the low and mid 60s. There is a chance of showers each and every day but only 20%. I wouldn't cancel your plans.
If you're headed to the Jags game on Sunday, the kickoff temperature is expected to be around 80 degrees with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Expect the same for Saturday as well.