JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – 11:15 PM UPDATE: Heavy showers have popped up near Orange Park, Doctors Inlet and areas near Julington Creek. These storms are not severe nor are they expected to be. We continue to monitor an area of strong storms north of Valdosta that are packing a lot of lightning. These storms are moving southeast at about 25 mph.
At this time, the severe risk to Jacksonville is minimal at best. However, we turn our attention to the boat and beach forecast for this weekend; both Saturday and Sunday. Nor'Easter conditions will set up bringing in cloudy skies and very gusty winds between 20 and 30 mph. Gusts could top 35 mph. It is not advised to be boating this weekend, not even in the near shore waters. Also rip currents will also be an issue.
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Expect passing showers tomorrow, especially along the coast with breezy conditions. Look for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies, especially in the afternoon.
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10:34 PM UPDATE: The severe thunderstorm watch that was in effect for the entire area has been cancelled. There is little to no threat of severe weather the remainder of the evening although scattered showers and a few booms of thunder will still be possible overnight.
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10:15 PM UPDATE: Not much to report. The storms that are moving into Jacksonville aren't even storms. They're have nearly completely fallen apart. A few scattered showers over the next hour or two but that's about it. No severe weather is anticipated through midnight.
There is one caveat: we are monitoring one complex of storms north of Valdosta that is moving southeast at a fairly brisk clip. At this time, the storm appears to be weakening but the lightning strikes are numerous. We'll stay and watch this cluster but all in all, things are looking better for Jacksonville for tonight.
John and I stepped outside a few minutes ago and it's definitely breezy outside along with air thick enough you could cut it but all in all, not bad.
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9:20 PM UPDATE: All the warnings in our area have been cancelled for now. However, we are monitoring some healthy winds that are about to come rolling through the Jacksonville area. Already we've seen winds along the coast gusting to 53 mph (radar indicated) with many reports of 40+ mph across southeast Georgia.
These storms appear to be falling apart as they approach our area. Lightning, thunder and periods of heavy rain can be expected in Jacksonville over the next one to two hours.
Still can't rule out a stray severe storm but overall the threat appears to be minimal.
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8:43 PM UPDATE: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Charlton, Ware and Pierce counties until 9:15 p.m. Radar indicated winds with these storms are exceeding 40 mph with some gusts as high as 53 mph.
These storms are pushing south at 30 mph. The main threat with these storms will be gusty winds and small hail along with frequent lighting.
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A Weather Authority Alert Day remains in effect as the Heat Advisory that was in effect for our area is now cancelled as of 6 p.m. Although we missed 100 degrees officially in Jacksonville, our mercury still tied the hottest days of the year so far at 97 degrees.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire area until 11 p.m. Friday. The main complex of storms is expected to move through Jacksonville between 10pm and 1 am. The main threat with these storms will be gusty, straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph and hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter.
At 2 p.m., the National Weather service forecast station in Waycross reported 100 degrees, a reporting station in northern St. Johns County reported 99, Fernandina Beach airport reported 97 and the weather service office at Jacksonville International Airport said it was 96 degrees.
With the extreme temperatures the Alert Day will last through midnight for the severe weather that could come in the evening. Southeast Georgia counties should see thunderstorms 7-9 p.m. and northeast Florida 9-11 p.m.
It's been hot all week. We've averaged 96.3 degrees the last three days in a row with the hottest days of the year so far occurring last Monday and Tuesday when the mercury hit 97°.
We're not the only ones baking. Heat advisories are hoisted for large portions of the U.S. including 11 states from California to Texas and north to Nebraska.
The reason is a menacing high pressure system, a 600 decameter high, that is dominating the country and getting larger as we speak. As air sinks and gets compressed against the surface, it heats causing temperatures in the desert southwest to soar to near all-time records. The forecast in Phoenix on Sunday? Try a sweltering 120°!
Our heat is from a slightly different origin however. We're too far east to be under the direct influence of the high out west. A digging trough of low pressure, aka cold front, will be diving through Tennessee and Georgia on Friday. With a strong Bermuda high to our south, we'll be nestled in with a west-southwesterly wind. That is a dry, hot wind for us and we'll be perfectly placed to reach maximum temperatures.
With such a hot atmosphere and moisture building up ahead of the front, we'll be in good position to see afternoon thunderstorms turn severe pretty quickly. Right now the primary threat appears to be straight line winds and small hail but with such a strong southwest flow aloft, can't rule out a tornado as well.
We'll continue to send out updates as we get new information. It's best just to stay tuned to News4Jax and News4Jax.com for the very latest on this developing weather situation.