'Hanna' could complicate Halloween forecast for Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Could Florida be in for a spooky surprise by Halloween? Here are some of the gruesome details about a newly formed Tropical Depression #9.

An area of disturbed weather that the Weather Authority had been tracking over the past few days has organized enough to be classified by the National Hurricane Center as a tropical depression; the ninth of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

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The government of Mexico has posted a Tropical Storm Warning for the coastal regions of the western Yucatan peninsula from Celestun to Frontera, Mexico. The storm was expected to make landfall there around midnight Thursday.

If and when it becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the list is 'Hanna.'

The next few days will be filled with lots of tricks as the computer models try and resolve the overall pattern regarding strength and direction of future Hanna.

The official forecast out of the National Hurricane Center calls for this depression to become extra-tropical (dissipate if you will) by 1 a.m. Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea before getting caught up in a frontal boundary and ejected out to sea.

That said, several models, including the more trusted and consistent GFS model continues to advertise a strong tropical storm or hurricane developing out of the remnants of Hanna and moving it north over the western tip of Cuba and bringing into Western Florida between Tamp Bay and the big bend by October 29th. Here are the last four computer runs of the GFS. Note the consistency of a Florida impact:


7 a.m. Tuesday Model Run (GFS): Tampa Hit


1 p.m. Tuesday Model Run (GFS): Keys Hit


7 p.m. Tuesday Model Run (GFS): Big Bend Hit


1 a.m. Wednesday Model Run (GFS): Tampa Hit

Another very trusted model, the Euro (which correctly forecast Hurricane Sandy while the GFS did not), says 'no' to the nightmare scenario. In fact, the Euro doesn't develop this system much at all.

Outside of the Euro, most of the other models develop this into a tropical storm. Some make this a hurricane as seen at left.

The National Weather Service offices have been closely monitoring the situation. The Tampa office had this to say:

"VERY UNCLEAR WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO TD9 NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SPLITS ENERGY ASSOC WITH TD9 IN TWO PIECES ON EITHER SIDE OF CUBA. ONE PIECE RACES OFF TO THE ENE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE OTHER REMAINING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GFS THEN STRENGTHENS THE PIECE LEFT BEHIND AND MOVES IT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. COULD HAPPEN...BUT WAY TO COMPLICATED AND NOT NEAR ENOUGH SUPPORT BY OTHER MODELS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT SOLUTION OUT 7 DAYS. THAT SAID...SHOULD NOTE THE EURO DOES SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FEATURE BETWEEN YUCATAN AND CUBA AS WELL...SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT BECOMES OF TD9 NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW FOLLOWED EURO FOR LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS."

The evolution of this system is very, very uncertain. The eventual strength of this system is even more uncertain. At this point, it's important to keep an eye on this system for possible impacts on the state late next week. 

At this time, it's unclear whether Halloween will be a trick or treat, but ghoulish weather may indeed affect somebody soon and we're long overdue. Keep in mind that Hurricane Wilma, the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin formed in late October and hit Florida on October 24th, 2005: 9 years ago! That haunting anniversary is on Friday.