JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – August-schmaugust. With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season about four weeks away, the Atlantic remains quieter than a church-house mouse and there's not even a hint of development on the horizon.
Aug. 10 is the average date when we see our first Atlantic hurricane. To date, we've seen zero. Notta. Nothing. Zip.
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August is the month when meteorologists go to DEFCON 1 in regards to hurricane readiness and begin paying close attention to any mass of clouds between here and Africa.
The only thing between here and Africa right now? Two dozen islands that I'd like to be vacationing on instead of at my desk at 5:30 a.m. But alas, here I am.
To my news director reading this: I'm grateful. Believe me.
Last week, the good folks over at Colorado State University released a mid-season update to their 2015 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:
- 5 more named storms
- 2 hurricanes
- 1 major hurricane (category 3 or higher)
To date, we've seen three named storms, all of which were tropical storms. Ana hit South Carolina; Bill hit an already drenched Texas; and Claudette stayed out into the open Atlantic.
Even though the measure of a busy season is based mostly on the amount of named storms, there is another, more scientific measure known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
ACE is an approximation of the total wind energy used in a system of at least tropical storm strength over the course of its life measured every 6 hours. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms and hurricanes in the season.
Ummm, what?
Basically the lower the ACE number, the slower the season. The higher, the busier.
According to Dr. Ryan Maue of Weatherbell Analytics, the average ACE for this time of year is 12. Currently we sit at just 4.5175. That's 37% of normal.
Annually, we should see an ACE of 104. In 2014 we only reached 65. In 2013 only 31!
So why is this season so paltry? Partly it's El Nino and the amount of wind shear in the atmosphere. But it's also this: take a look at the following water vapor image:
The water vapor image is the measurement of moisture in the atmosphere. As you see in the open Atlantic, there is a huge brown patch between the Lesser Antilies and the west coast of Africa. With the air so dusty and so dry, there is very little chance of something developing any time soon.
The other thing governing development is the below normal sea surface temperatures (SST's) in the Atlantic. Taking a look at the sea surface temps above, two things drastically stand out. First, in the white circle, you see the bright read jutting out into the Pacific from the South American coast. That is a very strong El Nino currently in progress.
In the green circle you see large patches of blue representing below normal anomalies in the Atlantic. So the below normal SST's, the choking dust and high wind shear, the chances of going into our 11th year without a hurricane strike on Florida continues to grow.
In fact, I'd say you have a better chance of cashing a check from Publisher's Clearing House than there is of seeing a storm develop in the next week or two. However, as we move towards the statistical peak of the season, Sept. 10, it only stands to reason that something else will develop. Keep in mind that the very quiet season of 1992 produced Andrew at the end of August.
Back in 2013 at this time, we hadn't seen any hurricanes yet either. That year, our first hurricane formed on September 11th, just hours from breaking the record for the latest first hurricane on record, which is held by 2002's Hurricane Gustav, which also formed on Sept. 11 but later in the day. The 2013 season went on to produce two hurricanes and the 2002 season produced four.
Therefore, we ain't out of it yet.