Look ahead: Work week weather

Chance of showers, temperatures in the 60s for Gate River Run

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Hakuna Matata, eh? What a wonderful phrase for a wonderful weekend. It really was awesome out there. Now the winds of March are to blow unsettled, wet weather our way.

Looking ahead to your week of weather, it's rather unsettled. No, it won't be a washout, but it isn't going to be weather you could bottle and sell either.

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Here's the breakdown:

Monday should be a continuation of what we had on Sunday. Temperatures are going to continue to warm into the mid to upper 70s region wide with mostly sunny skies. Our onshore breeze that kept temperatures east of the Intracoastal in the 60s Sunday will be back for Monday, as well. So coastal locations, expect temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees cooler than your counterparts west of the ditch.

Tuesday is when things slowly begin changing around here. Our easterly wind becomes southerly really ramping the temperatures up even further into the low to mid 80s. That southerly wind is going to transport higher moisture values into our area bringing us our first, albeit slight, chance of showers. Tuesday you'll definitely notice the increase in clouds.

Wednesday-Friday: Mostly cloudy skies will dominate our weather as several disturbances over Texas propagate this direction.  While the storm track is generally from New Orleans to Atlanta, we'll still be close enough with an unstable air mass overhead to have abundant clouds and widespread showers. I don't think these days are lost to a washout but I don't think it's going to be stellar either. You'll want to have an umbrella handy, especially by Thursday and Friday in case you find some of those showers lingering around. Temperatures will be capped around 80 degrees or so with the clouds and rain around.

Saturday and the Gate River Run:

It's amazing how I can be the hero and villain all in the same week, and I suppose I'll be no friend to those running on Saturday. Computer models are indicating an ever increasing chance of rain on Saturday under mostly cloudy to overcast skies. It's a bit too far out to get specific but as of now, it appears as though we'll have highs in the mid 70s after a morning start in the mid 60s. I don't think Saturday is going to be a washout, but it'll definitely be an ugly day across our area -- at least the way things stand now.

Take a look at the model below:

First, this is the GFS model that we use to forecast. Here is the breakdown of colors: Red: low and high temperatures. White: sky conditions. Yellow: rain chances. Green: how much rain we can expect.

As seen in the mode, Saturday's forecast is showing a high of 81 degrees after a morning start around 60. The model indicates that we'll have overcast conditions (OV-overcast) with a 66 percent chance of rain. The 4 circled in green means we can expect to see on average between .50 and .99 inches of rainfall. 

Keep in mind that this is just a model and the only thing certain with this is that it WILL change. Being 6 days away, there are just too many things that can and will change in the model sampling of the atmosphere but at this time, definitely plan on wet streets. 

BLAKE'S TAKE: 

We're slowly inching towards spring where longer, warmer days will lead to our atmosphere being more unstable for longer periods of time...yeah yeah yeah, what's that mean? Rain chances and thunderstorms are going to become more of a familiar sight on the 7-day in the next few weeks. It's what I was told was "liquid sunshine." 

It's six of one and a half dozen of the other. Many of you would rather eat dinner with your in-laws than deal with the cold. The trade off is rain every afternoon during the summer. The days of beautiful, clear skies and cool afternoons are nearly over. What gives?

Final fun fact: if I were to run the Gate, like Kumasi Aaron wants me to, I would need a four-day forecast because that's about how long it would take me to run that far. I wish I was kidding.