JACKSONVILLE, Fla -

Forecast models are still bringing back rains to NEFL / SEGA and for some of us, they will be heavy.  Grab the umbrella and jacket as temperatures will be chilly to cool throughout the entire day. 

Forecast models:  Consistency and Comparisons.

Forecast model output can vary dramatically, despite starting with the exact same information.  The two shown below the RPM and GFS are considered the best American forecast models and they are both good.  Yet, each has their strengths and weaknesses.  These can vary from one part of the country to the next.  It's up to the local forecasters to know which seems to better understand which model knows best?

Gainesville to Palatka to St. Augustine will have the greatest chances of rain and heavy rains.  Amounts will range from 1-2+" and there could even be a few intense thunderstorms that bring gusty winds and hail.

Locally, in Jacksonville, rains will spread back across the area, starting early and staying late into the evening.  The rains won't be continuous but for some, it will feel that way. 

Keep an eye on the weather APP (radar) and we will keep you up to date on where the rains will be throughout the day.  Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, here at News4jax.com and of course, live on-air.

RPM (better at localized heavy rain forecasts)

Better forecaster of heavy rains and storms

GFS (better at winter, or nor'easter rain scenarios)

Forecast model number 2