Could stormy weather in Gulf turn tropical?

National Hurricane Center not overly concerned about development

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A small swirl, dubbed invest 95L in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, has caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center but development of this system remains highly unlikely.

A dying, stalled out frontal boundary that has been draped over northern Florida the past week or so has now spawn a circulation center over the gulf. 

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Due to the proximity to land, immediate development of this system is highly improbable at this time. The National Hurricane Center is only giving this system a 10 percent chance of development over the next five days.

The wet weekend we were expecting over Jacksonville didn't materialize the way we had anticipated, as most of the moisture stayed further south than models had predicted.

You win some, lose some. 

Don't believe me? Ask the good folks in Tampa. The city is dealing with big flooding problems where 13 to as much as 20 inches have fallen in the last week with more very heavy, tropical rain falling as I type this. Flood warnings are up for a large portion of the west coast including the bay area.

Locally, our rain chances will be elevated but like we saw over the weekend, we're not anticipating a washout. Look for scattered showers to increase in number heading into the afternoon as this area of low pressure continues to very slowly push to the east across northern Florida and southeast Georgia. 

Further out in the Atlantic, invest 94L has degenerated into nothing more than a few spotty showers. Development of this system is not anticipated due to it being choked off by the entrainment of Saharan dust being blown off the continent of Africa.

Everything else remains very quiet in the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic and further development is not anticipated in the near future.

Meanwhile out in the Pacific, Hawaii continues to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Guillermo. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center keeps this storm just to the north of Honolulu with a possible brush with the big island to the south. So if you're dreaming of a Hawaiian vacation bathed in sunshine and palm trees, your dream may become a nightmare with dark clouds, heavy rain and gusty winds greeting you instead of a leis on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm makes its closest approach.