Jacksonville, Fla - Inside weather offices up and down the East-coast of the United States, the discussion began with "are you kidding!" The European forecast model, some consider it to be the best weather forecast model in the world (it did predict how/where and when Sandy would impact the Northeast U.S.), is now predicting a decent pre-Thanksgiving snowfall for the mountains of the Southeast U.S.
Trouble is... The companion forecast model, the GFS, based out of the United States, is saying, "no way". In fact, it's suggesting that the atmosphere will be too warm and the storm system won't develop as intensely, but rather zip out to sea.
So, how do forecasters handle this disagreement? We will see, I know that when I find myself dealing with this kind of forecasting dilemma I tend to fall back on what has happened historically. In the current case, it appears that the GFS will be correct, which means, little snow for the Carolina mountains.
You know what else I do? I also delay the final forecast until the models begin to agree. That tends to happen about 72 hours out, in this case sometime Saturday.
So, if you were thinking of taking a drive during the Thanksgiving holiday, maybe with the kids, to where there might be snow on the ground, you will need to hope the European forecast model once again proves itself right...
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