Put boats away; flood threat diminishes

Drier conditions to prevail through the end of the week

JACKSONVILLE, Fla – Even post mortem, the remains of Erika are proving difficult to forecast, but thankfully for Jacksonville, most of the rain looks to remain well west of the area through Tuesday afternoon but heavy rain remains a real possibility as it moves into the panhandle.

On Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service discontinued all flood watches for our area with only spotty, but heavy, downpours expected the next few days; typical of a late summer, early autumn pattern.

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It wasn't all a bust however. Some areas around the area have received exactly what we've called for: upwards of 5 inches of rainfall and some areas a little more than that. Just take a look at the image at the top of the page! Those are rainfall totals just over the last 48 hours. It would be much higher going back four days.

On Sunday, the National Weather Service indicated that some areas in northeastern Alachua county picked up over 7 inches of rainfall. Going back to Friday, here are some observed rainfall totals:

  • Jacksonville: 1.60"
  • Craig Field: .91"
  • Gainesville: 2.01"
  • Alma, Ga: 2.25"
  • Brunswick, Ga: 3.98"


Those totals are point locations at international and regional airfields and are small samples not representative of the entire area.

Moving forward, more scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday and are already occurring in abundance as of this entry in southeast Georgia.

We'll continue the rain chances through the rest of the week and upcoming weekend but again, this is nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Expect afternoon showers and storms to continue each day.

The one fly in the ointment is the possibility of nor'easter conditions setting in heading into the weekend and early next week where a strong easterly fetch could provide torrential rains for the coastal regions. This is a threat that the Weather Authority is still evaluating.

Meteorological autumn arrives


September 1 marks the first day of meteorological autumn. Now I know what you're thinking, "well it sure as heck doesn't feel like it!"

You're exactly right and it won't for a few more weeks. Let's dive into some of the averages and records heading into September.

As of Tuesday, our average high temperature has officially dropped below 90 degrees (89°)! That alone is reason enough to celebrate. But September can still be hot as a kiln. 

All the record highs for the month are still in the mid and upper 90s (but no 100s). The hottest September day was on the 3rd in 1912. 

But for the cold weather lovers like myself, September is a month when things begin cooling down rapidly. 

Our average high temperature on September 1 is 89 degrees. By the end of the month, it's down to just 84 degrees. Break out the coats and scarves, eh? 

Speaking of cold weather, by the third week of the month, our first cold front should arrive bringing in, if nothing more than a tease, a taste of autumn. Some of these fronts can be rather strong.

The coldest temperature ever recorded in Jacksonville in September is 48 degrees on the 20th of the month in 1981! 

My first thoughts on that? WOW! I didn't realize it was so low but again, September is a month of rapid change. Our average low goes from 72 degrees on the 1st to 66 degrees on the 30th. 

Our hurricane threat begins to transition too by the end of the month. Our threats no longer really come from the east where Cape Verde storms are normally kicked out to sea late in the month by those strong cold fronts I mentioned earlier. They originate much closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico where storms can develop and get picked up by fronts and slung to the east.

Opal comes to mind in 1995. 

So while the Halloween Superstores, pumpkins and faux orange leaves in Hobby Lobby may begin to sound the all-clear on the hurricane season, keep in mind that we're not even at the statistical peak of the season until September 10.