JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Every once in a great while the [almost] impossible happens. This was the case a few weeks ago when snow flew over the streets of Jacksonville. Twice in three weeks? It's possible. I know, we can't believe it either.
Before we all get hysterical, let's remember that like last time, there is a very slight chance but even slight chances have a way of verifying. It also appears as though any snow that does fall, will be much earlier in the morning.
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Here's the set up:
A strong cold front is forecast to move through on Monday with very cold air locked behind it. With the cold air in place, a strong low pressure is forecast to develop off of our coast Monday night into Tuesday allowing moisture to form nearby.
What we having going for us:
As we saw a few weeks ago, the surface temperatures do NOT have to be below freezing in order for it to snow as long as the air just above your head (what we call the boundary layer) is below freezing up to 5,000 ft -- the dendritic layer at 850 mb for the meteorology types.
In this scenario, the temperatures are definitely cold enough above your head to get snow to make it to the surface. Also like last time, any snow that makes it to the ground will be very light and will not cause impacts on area roadways or bridges.
What we have working against us:
Our winds are expected to be prevailing from the northwest around an area of low pressure at the time the moisture makes its closest approach to our area. This leads me to believe the chance of seeing any snow flakes is somewhat diminished.
A few weeks ago, we had a strong northeasterly wind around a high pressure that pushed the moisture from the ocean onto land. The relatively warm water near the cold land allowed for ocean effect snow to occur. Basically that's when moisture evaporates from the surface of the water and condenses quickly into clouds in a cold atmosphere. Unfortunately, we have a low pressure in place of the high we had last time which means unfortunately our winds will be blowing the wrong direction pushing moisture away from our coast.
Nonetheless, the models continue to indicate the slight possibility of enough moisture working into our area with a cold atmosphere that flurries may very well fly over the city once again in the coming days.
I guess it goes without saying that #FlurryWatch2015 will once again dominate the headlines heading into early next week.