Anticipate afternoon thunderstorms most days this week, as a moist and unstable weather pattern settles over Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Monday started out mild, with low 70's for early morning lows, but warmed quickly into the low 90's for the afternoon hours. As temperatures warmed, the chances for rain grew- with the heat increasing the instability into the afternoon hours.
Expect two catalyst points for showers and thunderstorms. The sea breeze front pushes inland all afternoon, and by 2pm,it will be approaching the Eastern-most edge of I-295, and showers are expected to pop up, and push Westward with the sea breeze front. The second point of origin for storms is an upper-level disturbance, a shortwave, that will move over the West coast of Florida during the early afternoon hours, and move slowly East during the later afternoon hours. The sea breeze front should meet the shortwave in between Hwy 301 and I-75 by the late afternoon, early evening hours. Expect 50% coverage of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Shower activity dies down as the temperatures drop into the 70's overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
Expect fewer afternoon showers on Tuesday and warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs top out at 92° with 30% coverage of showers and thunderstorms, primarily to the North of I-10.
Wednesday starts out in the low to mid 70's, under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures climb into the low 90's during the afternoon hours, with winds out of the Southwest between 7 and 12mph. A few showers and thunderstorms will fire up during the afternoon hours, mainly along and to the North of I-10, and they will fade after sunset.
By Thursday, a sagging cold front stalls out around the state line between Georgia and Florida, and acts as a catalyst point for showers, bringing increased coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, into Friday afternoon. The front lifts back out Friday, returning our area to increasingly better weather for the weekend.