Tracking The Tropics

A tropical disturbance moving off the coast of Africa shows a medium chance for development

Has a 40% chance to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a surface low pressure a couple of hundred miles South-Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.  The disturbance shows a decrease in thunderstorm activity, but an increase in definition overnight.  The disturbance does not have a defined center or any organized rotation.  Satellite imagery shows  poorly distributed convection, but plenty of energy and instability. The disturbance is moving to the West-Northwest between 15 and 20mph.

Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance has a medium chance, or a 40% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.  Wind shear, sea surface temperature, and other factors related to development are all conducive for development only for the next 24 hours.  After 24 hours passes, the West-Northwest movement of the disturbance brings it into an area that is less conducive for development.  If the disturbance is declared a tropical cyclone, it will be difficult for it to remain a tropical cyclone, and maintain its strength and organization.

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Primary concerns at this time lie solely in the Cape Verde Islands. The next update from the National Hurricane Center is scheduled for 2:00pm Tuesday.