JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Are you ready to rumble? Apparently the internet is!
It's only mid-July, but already there has been a deluge of Facebook posts, tweets and emails from weather fans talking about what the latest long-range hurricane forecast models are telling us what is "absolutely" going to happen next. Typically, it involves a massively destructive major hurricane that is going to hit the United States.
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Two weeks ago, it was a weak system coming off the coast of Africa where dynamic forecast models picked up as a developing tropical system. Two dynamic models jumped on this system creating what was sure to be... a major hurricane 10 days later. But wait, it got better! One of the two models suggested that it would then barrel into the Eastern United States, possibly into the Carolinas.
Ultimately, the system did become Tropical Depression Four, which lasted all of a few days and then weakened back to an open tropical wave which is the weakest of tropical systems.
Bring back the dead?
Yet, within hours after Tropical Depression Four had been downgraded, I had already received a number of phone calls and emails suggesting that this could become just like Katrina! Let me flash-back...Post-Katrina, some observers felt a weak tropical depression (#10) had faded only to regenerate over the Bahamas and rapidly developed into Katrina.
Bring you back to today, the internet rumor mill was churning that Tropical Depression Four was just another "bomb" about to explode just as it tracks off towards Florida and then into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Depression Four another Katrina? Not going to happen...
Must be Ground Hog Day!
Over the last four days, one widely used forecast model is once again suggesting that a major hurricane is just 10 days away! This image shows a major hurricane just off the Florida coast. Problem is, this system is barely organized and the most skilled forecast model, the EURO doesn't even acknowledge any development.
Sigh. Another week of fighting off the mis-truths, misguided and misunderstandings from the internet.
Better forecasts just days away?
Well my fingers are crossed as here's some BIG NEWS! The two most widely used forecast models, both the EURO and the GFS are being upgraded over the next seven days, the hope of course is that we will see somewhat improved forecasts.
The EURO will see an important update starting Tuesday, July 11, and we should be able get a better feel for the changes within a week. Then the GFS will also get a makeover on July 20, allowing for what should be better output guidance for users here in the United States.
And given all the hysteria the GFS has been producing so far this season, these improvements come not at a moment too soon...
Keeping score
There are some very complicated statistical schemes in which to "score" which forecast model is better. These schemes have almost always scored the EURO forecast model better than the GFS and is my personal favorite, especially when the two seem to be very split on outcomes.
Right now, the EURO does want to weakly develop old Tropical Depression Four just as it comes ashore the Louisiana-Texas border in 6 days, but wants absolutely nothing to do with whatever the GFS is conjuring up along the Florida coast in 10 days.
And with that, I say, Go EURO!