JACKSONVILLE, Fla – After a few isolated early morning showers, significant showers and storms have failed to develop. However, stay alert! As sunshine and warmer temperatures develop, the atmosphere will become unstable and there are enough ingredients to allow for afternoon and evening storms to crank-up, some of which may become severe.
It will be no repeat of last Saturday. The severe weather, although a part of the same system, has weakened considerably.
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What happened to the forecast of heavy rains for this morning? Simple: Live by the forecast models, die by them. I personally listen to what they are saying without taking them too literally. One key aspect of their ability to being accurate is, consistency. If the models repeatedly say the same story and (this is key, too) if the story evolves as they suggest, then they tend to be fairly accurate.
The past two days, the forecast models have been fairly consistent, suggesting two rounds of rains for Jacksonville. One round this morning, another this evening.
Clearly, Tuesday morning's rains are not happening, yet. That leaves the potential for round two this evening.
I would just keep the umbrella handy for the whole day.