JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Final Update: Storms long gone after causing power outages and lightning home fires. All watches and warnings are over.
Update: 3:30 a.m. Tornado threat ends in Georgia and west and north of Jacksonville. Tornado watch canceled Baker counties west and across southern Georgia.
Storms gusted to 44 mph in Keystone Heights. Westside power outages. Storms clearing Duval and pushing off beaches. Assessing damage in St. Marys after tornado warning. Doppler radar indicated 70 mph winds near downtown just after 2 am.
Update 2:10 a.m.
A tornado warning has been issued for Nassau and Camden counties until 2:45 a.m.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for:
- Nassau County in northeastern Florida,
- Southern Camden County in southeastern Georgia,
- Southeastern Ware County in southeastern Georgia...
- Central Charlton County in southeastern Georgia...
until 2:15 a.m.
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Update 12:20am
A tornado watch has been issued until 8 a.m. Thursday for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
A tornado watch means there is a threat of severe storms, some of which could produce a tornado.
The National Weather Service says:
- Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move quickly across SE GA through 4 a.m.
- Severe storm potential will increase through the early morning hours across NE Florida, first impacting the Suwanee River Valley.
- Storms will decrease in coverage across SE GA after 4 am, but will impact NE Florida through sunrise, including during the early morning commute.
- Storms will move quickly to the NE around 50-60 mph, and exit offshore of the Atlantic coast near sunrise or shortly after.
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Update 12:00 AM
Weather Authority Alert now in effect and we will be doing frequent updates. Hourly on-air at 12:05am, 1:02am, 2:00am, 3:30am and 4:00am and of course right into The Morning Shows starting at 4:30am. Surrounding these on-air updates will be FaceBook Live updates as well
Currently we have a broken line of thunderstorms well west of Jacksonville, timing on their arrival in Jacksonville will be around 4am give take an hour.
Lake City (I-75) 2:00am
Macclenny (Baker) 3:00am
Jacksonville (Duval, Clay, Nassau Counties) 4:00am
St. Augustine (St. Johns Putnam) 5:00am
Storms clear out before sunrise at 7:11am
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Update 10:20 p.m.
A tornado warning issued for Pierce and Brantley counties has been canceled after the tornadic thunderstorm that prompted the warning moved out of the area.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 11 p.m. for southeastern Georgia.
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Update 9:30 p.m.
Severe weather threat lessens dramatically as just scattered storms and showers will push through Jacksonville between 3-5 am.
Why the downgrade?
Georgia storms were very severe as expected with numerous reports of tornadoes but the inflow of moisture form the Gulf of Mexico appears (on satellite imagery) to be less than what earlier forecast models suggested and as such, the newer model forecast are now backing way off on a second round of storms overnight tonight.
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Update 8:30 p.m.
Severe thunderstorm warning for Ware County (Waycross, Georgia) and Pierce Counties, Georgia. Mainly gusty winds to 60 mph. Storm is moving northeast at 45 mph.
Jacksonville is HOURS away from seeing any impact. Timeline for Duval County is between 2-4 am. we are expecting mainly rumbles of thunder and downpours but cannot rule out a possible severe storm or two.
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Because of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes moving into the Channel 4 viewing area overnight, The Weather Authority has declared a Weather Authority Alert from midnight through 7 a.m. Thursday.
A squall line of storms ahead of a strong cold front will push through the southeast this afternoon and will push through our area early Thursday morning.
A tornado watch was issued for inland Southeastern Georgia at 1 p.m. - but does not include any counties within our viewing area, but remains to the North and West of us. That is likely to be extended to the east later in the day, and perhaps into northeast Florida overnight.
The latest discussion from the Storm Prediction Center details the reasoning behind the increased risk.
"Given the strength of the wind fields and rising instability, there is increasing concern for discrete supercell formation by early afternoon. Environmental parameters appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes across this region, in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Tornado watch will be issued for parts of this area by 17z."
The storms will be moving quickly, so flooding is not much of a concern. Rainfall amounts will mostly be between half of an inch and an inch, with a few isolated areas seeing over an inch of rain.
The Weather Authority's meteorologist Richard Nunn breaks down the expected timing based on the latest forecast models:
Current models show the front approaching our area early Thursday:
Now-11 p.m: Waycross, Valdosta, Lake City
2-3 a.m.: Folkston, Macclenny, Starke, Lawtey
3-4 a.m.: Amelia Island, Yulee, Middleburg, Orange Park, Keystone Heights, Jacksonville
4-5 a.m.: Ponte Vedra, St. Augustine, Palatka, Crescent City
5-6 a.m.: Welaka, Bunnell, Palm Coast
6-8 a.m.: Clearing the area, for some the clean up begins
Once the storms push south of us and offshore, the day will be breezy with clearing skies. The cold front behind the storms will significantly change our weather as we head into Friday and the rest of the weekend. Strong high pressure builds in over the entire Southeast.
The high pressure clears our skies out, dries us out, and cooler, drier air moves in- lowering our temperatures. Overnight lows will dip into the chilly mid to low 40s and only warm up to around 70° for an afternoon high.
The Weather Authority chief meteorologist John Gaughan explained what the difference is between Thursday morning's storms and the storms we saw early Tuesday morning.
"The two events are uniquely different, Monday night was primarily a heavy rain event and as long as you were inside (trying to sleep through it) you were OK. Tonight has the threat of Tornadoes and long tracking storms with hail/damaging winds that will not impact as many people as Monday night, but has the greater threat of causing harm/damage. Summing up, Monday was a widespread rain story, tonight is a severe threat story."
Because of the expect inclimate weather, the Ware County school system has delayed the start of school by two hours on Thursday and is using one school as an overnight shelter for those that may need to sleep in a more secure structure. You can read the details here. No other school closures or delays have been reported at this time.