Tropical storm or autumn blast this weekend

Invest 99 organizing

By Mark Collins - Meteorologist
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Tropical disturbance has the potential to organize and track northward.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Timing is everything for our weekend weather outlook. Weather-wise this week will be uneventful without much chance for rain along with above average highs in the mid 80s through Friday.

A cold front blasts cooler fall weather in here Friday night setting up a beautiful weekend. Let's hope this forecast pans out because that front would steer what could become Tropical Storm Otto offshore away from Florida. 

A cluster of storms near the southeast Bahamas and north of Hispaniola has the potential to organize over the next couple days into a tropical storm. The environment is turning less hostile now with shear dropping to 20-30 knots from the west. This has made the storm lopsided and tracked the disturbance to the east. The upper trough diggign down off the east coast of Florida will lift and relax the upper winds. Conditions continue to become more favorable and the National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of formation during the next 48 hours and 80% chance over the next 5 days.

ECMWF model is forecasting a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds in the system by Wednesday. That model and the GFS track the disturbance to the NW in the direction of Florida's east coast. By Friday it could be east of Jacksonville as our front arrives to send the tropical disturbance out to sea.

Don't expect any significant rain with Friday's front. The amount of moisture in the total air column called precipitable water is forecast to be a low .75 inches which doesn't give the system much to work with for making rain. So at best we may only see a sprinkle Friday night.

Jacket weather arrives.

Sunny skies arrive Saturday behind the front with a high reaching about 78 with breezy NW winds. Bundle up overnight lows may drop into the mid 50s in town by Sunday morning.