TRACKING THE TROPICS


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization this morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, high, 70 percent.

Posted 1 hour, 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Papin

Special Features

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian is centered near 18.2N 82.0W at 26/0900 UTC or 80 nm SW of Grand Cayman moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 nm from the center in the N semicircle, 70 nm in the SE quadrant, and 30 nm in the SW quadrant. The sea heights are 12 ft or greater within 60 nm of the center N semicircle and 30 nm in the S semicircle, with peak seas of around 17 ft. Strong winds and seas of at least 8 ft associate with Ian encompass an area from 16N to 21N between 78W and 84W. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 15N36W, continues to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 16N between 33W and 40W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days before upper-level winds become less favorable toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander during the next day or two and then move slowly north- northwestward. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details.

Tropical Waves

No tropical waves are present at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes from near the Mauritania Senegal border near 16N16W to 12N23W to 10N31W to a 1008 mb low pressure, described in the Special Features section above, near 15N36W to 07N41W. The ITCZ then continues to 09N51W. Aside from convection associated with the low pressure, no significant convection is occurring.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian.

A mid and upper level low pressure trough with an axis just inland over Mexico and Texas is leading to scattered moderate convection W of 91W. A weak surface trough has formed in the far SE Gulf, and this feature is inducing scattered moderate convection within 30 nm either side of a line from SW Florida to the western tip of Cuba. Elsewhere over the Gulf, weak high pressure centered in the NE Gulf is keeping conditions dry. The basin is dominated by light to gentle NE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this afternoon, 21.7N 83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and 25.3N 84.1W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W Thu morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near the Florida Gulf coast early Fri. Expect hazardous conditions in the eastern and central Gulf as early as tonight and continuing much of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section above for details on newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian.

Away from Hurricane Ian, no significant convection is occurring. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the central and eastern basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, through the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and beyond western Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished early this morning.

Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this afternoon, 21.7N 83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and 25.3N 84.1W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W Thu morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near the Florida Gulf coast early Fri. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for details on newly-upgraded Hurricane Ian and on low pressure well west of the Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical depression this week.

Gaston became post-tropical overnight and no longer has an convection associated with it. Additional information on this system can be found in the High Seas Forecast at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

A stationary front has devolved into a surface trough that is located from 31N58W to 27N70W. Convection previously associated with the front has dissipated.

Aside from convection associated with the low pressure well W of the Cabo Verde islands, scattered moderate convection has developed within fresh trade winds from 10N to 18N between 50W and 60W.

W of 55W, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail, with some locally fresh winds just N of the Greater Antilles. For areas between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate E winds prevail. E of 35W and S of 20N, winds are light to gentle. To the N, fresh to strong ENE winds prevail N of the remnant circulation of Hermine, affecting the Canary Islands.

N of 27N and E of 55W, 8 to 10 ft seas are common due to swell mainly generated from previous cyclones Fiona, Gaston, and Hermine. Otherwise across the basin, seas average 4 to 7 ft.

Hurricane Ian will move to 19.7N 83.0W this afternoon, 21.7N 83.9W Tue morning, 23.6N 84.1W Tue afternoon, and 25.3N 84.1W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 26.7N 83.7W Wed afternoon, then be near 27.7N 83.4W Thu morning. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves near the Florida Gulf coast early Fri. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 75W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night.

Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik