Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning

A very strong cold front is currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. As of 1800 UTC, the front extends from the Florida big bend to the central bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data indicate strong gale force winds behind the cold front while tampico and Veracruz, located along the mexican coast, are reporting sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz this afternoon and evening. The front is forecast to reach from ft myers, fl to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening with a large area of gale force winds behind it, and seas of 15 to 18 ft over the southwest Gulf. The front will move southeast of the area tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front across the Gulf waters with winds and seas gradually diminishing of thu.

Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Heavy Rainfall Potential in Northern Honduras

The strong cold front now moving across the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean tonight. Heavy rainfall will likely affect northern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua Thursday through Saturday in association with the frontal boundary. The heavy rain in Honduras could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. A period of locally heavy rain is also likely this afternoon through Thursday in north-central Guatemala and over the southeastern portions of the mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas. However, the greatest threat for flooding is over northern Honduras where persistent northerly flow will bring abundant moisture. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough passes through the prime meridian along 05N, to 23W. The ITCZ continues from 23W, to 37W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N to the equator between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward between 16W and 50W. Isolated moderate is to the south of The Monsoon Trough between 08W and 15W.

Gulf of Mexico

A weakening and slowly-moving cold front passes through the Florida big bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the west central Gulf. A second and comparatively stronger cold front is about 220 nm to the west of the slowly-moving cold front. Please read the special features section, in order to be aware of the gale-force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the forecast. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the northwest of the line that runs from the west central coast of Florida, along 27N, to the northwest corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The second and stronger cold front will catch up to and merge with the slowly-moving and weakening cold front, today. The combined/merged frontal boundary will race southeast, and through and out of the Gulf of Mexico by late this evening. High pressure will dive south and settle into the area through the end of the week. Gale-force winds are developing behind the strong cold front, off the tx coast. The gale-force winds will envelop most of the west Gulf of Mexico today. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and evening. Gale wind conditions will prevail in the broader southwest Gulf through tonight, before north winds diminish to strong on Thursday. It is likely that another cold front may move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Friday night or early on Saturday.

Caribbean Sea

An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, nearly everywhere, except from 84W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American temperature and precipitation tables, miatptpan/sxca01 kNHC, are: 0.09 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure north and east of the Caribbean Sea, in combination with low pressure in South America, will maintain strong northeast to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the coast of colombian. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Sea this evening. The front will move southeastward, to a position from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thursday evening. The front will become stationary, during the weekend, from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to strong north winds are expected in the wake of this wake of this front, across the Caribbean Sea, during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A slowly-moving cold front passes through 44W, to 50W, to 56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the southeast of the cold front, from 25N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N northward between 40W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N to 28N. The trough replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours to 24 hours ago. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm of the upper level cyclonic center in the south semicircle. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 09N northward between 30W and 40W.

Strong southwest winds are expected northeast of the Bahamas today and tonight, in advance of a cold front that will move off the southeast U.S.a this afternoon. Strong northwest wind is expected north of the Bahamas through Thursday, behind this front. The front will move east of Bermuda and the Bahamas and into east Cuba by Thursday evening. The cold front will slow down as it moves east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend. It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong northwest winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the upcoming weekend.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Gr

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature