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Tracking the tropics



Tropics Watch


Gulf
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Atlantic
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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 1 month, 3 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved off the SE U.S. Coast early this morning while the associated area of low pressure is beginning to rapidly intensify north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near 31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales have begun north of 27N and west of the front and will spread east through the end of the week. The gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning this afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through Sat. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. The combination of the building high pressure and low pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia Fri night and again Sat night. Winds will be near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extending from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central Gulf near 24N90W to the SW Gulf near 18N94W will exit the basin by this evening. Gale-force will persist over the SW Gulf through early this evening. Winds and seas will diminish tonight through Fri, with peak seas to around 11 ft today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 10N between 30W and 58W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central Gulf near 24N90W to the SW Gulf near 18N94W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted behind the front outside of the gales in the southwest Gulf, with 6-10 ft seas. Ahead of the front, light to gentle flow and seas of 3 ft or less prevail. Some dense fog with reduced visibilities has been occurring within the southwest Florida coastal waters, however the front is approaching that area and the fog will dissipate. An earlier thin, yet intense line of convection has all but dissipated with scattered showers still possible within 45-90 nm either side of the front.

The cold front will exit the basin by this evening. Winds and seas will diminish tonight through Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move eastward across the basin and exit Mon.

Caribbean Sea

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea north of the coast of Colombia.

The remnants of a stationary front extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to near 17N57W continue to wash out with isolated to scattered showers leftover. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh easterly trades across the Caribbean, except fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, strongest near the coast of Colombia, and mainly moderate in the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, except 7-11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the northwest Caribbean.

A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean later today through Fri night. Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW Caribbean waters through Sat and over the Atlantic passages from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. The next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean on Mon into Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

West of 65W, high pressure of 1019 mb is located near 25N65W with a ridge axis extending to the upper Florida Keys ahead of a cold front discussed above. Gentle anticyclonic winds are under the ridge between 22N-26N, with moderate to fresh winds noted elsewhere away from the incoming cold front. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft in a mix of old swells. Scattered showers are occurring near the cold front with any deeper convection confined to well north of the area where the best upper level dynamics are.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge will weaken as the strong cold front moves east. The strong cold front will move quickly while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N69W to western Cuba by this afternoon, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by tonight. Strong gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system through tonight, mainly N of 27N. Winds will diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast.

East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 28N65W to east of the northern Leeward Islands near 17N60W. A ridge axis extends from the 1019 mb high pressure near 25N65W to 23N50W to 29N35W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail within 2-3 degrees of the ridge axis. A 984 mb low pressure system is well north of the area near 38N46W. This low extends a cold front to along 32N. Fresh to strong winds are occurring north of about 29N between 40W-60W, along with seas of 10-14 ft in mixed northerly swell. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters south of 20N, while seas of 7-10 ft dominate the waters south of 29N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature