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Tropics Watch


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Atlantic
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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Brown

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Large Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 41.3N 56.1W at 25/0300 UTC or 680 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Epsilon is growing even larger as it accelerates northeastward. Continued acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after it becomes post-tropical on Sunday. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Epsilon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight is upgraded to Tropical Storm Zeta at 25/0600 UTC. At this time, it is centered near 18.5N 83.5W or 220 nm SSE of the western tip of Cuba. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Zeta is currently stationary and is re- organizing. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Zeta. Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the estimated low- level position. Latest satellite imagery suggests that the low- level center could be trying to reform closer to the deep convection. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 16N-19N between 82W-86W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis along 33W/34W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 06N-09N between 30W-34W.

A tropical wave previously located along 55W/56W is relocated farther E along 50W/51W from 05N-17N based on Tropical Wave Diagnostic and 700 mb streamlines. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis. Similar convection is also observed well ahead of the wave axis from 08N-12N between 53W-61W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh E-SE winds in this area.

A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean with axis along 70W/71W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over western Venezuela/northern Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of Africa in Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 09N33W to 06N40W to 07N49W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-11N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 04N-09N between 22W-30W, and from 06N-08N between 34W-42W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the eastern Gulf. This feature supports a surface cold front that from the western Florida Panhandle across the central Gulf near 26N90W to NE mexico near Ciudad Victoria, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with frequent lightning, are ahead of the front over N Florida and the NE Gulf. High pressure is building southeast over the western Gulf behind the cold front. Latest scatterometer data indicate generally moderate north to northeast winds behind the front and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds ahead of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico early Sun morning. The southern part of the front will move across the Bay of Campeche on Sun while the northern part will remain nearly stationary. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by fresh to strong winds.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta in the western Caribbean Sea. Zeta is expected to produce heavy rainfall and tropical-storm force winds across portions of the NW Caribbean. Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday in association with this tropical cyclone.

The eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean across Costa Rica to northern Colombia. This system, combined with a tropical wave, is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10-13N between 71W- 74W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting parts of eastern Cuba and the Caribbean regional waters. Recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong SE-S winds within this area. Mainly fresh trade winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Winds and seas will continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week as the pressure gradient tighten between the Atlantic ridge and the tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Epsilon. Large swells generated by Epsilon, located well N of the forecast area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun, and will also affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details.

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Bahamas to near 27N73W. Scattered moderate convection is just N of the trough to about 29N. Similar convection is also seen from 24N-27N between 65W-71W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

A 1031 mb high pressure centered near 34N32W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted per scatterometer data along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge mainly from 17N-23N E of 50W. Similar wind speeds are observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa. These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic waters of Western Sahara and Mauritania.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature