Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral. However, the system still lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a tropical depression. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 50 percent.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Blake

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

A 1013 mb low is centered near 29N77W, about 175 nm east of Melbourne, Florida. This low continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas, N of 25N between 75W and 78W. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of development within 48 hours and the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information.

Heavy rainfall is expected in Southern Central America, particularly in Panama, Costa Rica and Southern Nicaragua. High moisture content, persistent monsoon flow, and favorable conditions aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous strong convection capable of producing torrential rain through early next week. The heaviest rainfall has been over central Panama, E Costa Rica and S Nicaragua. Heavy rainfall in these areas could cause significant flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N between 18N to 20N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 67W from 22N southward, moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage near the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 81W from 22N southward, moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across southern Cuba near the wave in addition to enhanced convection near the monsoon trough, S of 11N between 79W to 81W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau coast near 11N16W to 09N27W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N and E of 24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between 44W and 54W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface trough extends into the western Gulf from the Florida coast near 27N82W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate convection is near this trough from 24N to 28N and E of 86W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is in the north-central Gulf, N of 25N between 87W to 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also present in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N. A 1020 mb high pressure is analyzed near 25N93W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with locally fresh winds likely near the northwest Yucatan coast. Seas range 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will meander and weaken through Mon as a low pressure currently located about 175 nm east of Daytona Beach, Florida meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula. This system is forecast to move across northern Florida Sun night and Mon.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on convection across the Caribbean Basin.

Numerous strong thunderstorms are along the northern coast of Colombia, between 72W and 76W. Some of these storms could be reaching adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Greater Antilles which are moving into adjacent waters. Generally gentle to moderate trades are noted across the Caribbean with locally fresh winds N of Colombia. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will weaken through early next week as the high shifts slowly NE and a low pressure system persists offshore of the Florida coast. This will lead to a gradual diminishing in the strength of the tradewinds across the basin through at least Wed. Look for scattered squalls and thunderstorms across the NE Caribbean tonight associated with a fast moving tropical wave.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section for more information on the low east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on the wave off the African coast.

Aside from the convection associated with the 1013 mb low E of Florida, an upper- level low E of the SE Bahamas at 22N69W is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 30N between 60W and 75W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 4 to 7 ft. A trough is in the central Atlantic from 30N47W to 22N44W. No convection is associated with this feature. High pressure extends across this area anchored by a 1025 mb high near 32N52W. Light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 45W, the low pressure system is located about 175 nm east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms associated with a fast moving tropical wave with axis along 68W will move across the SE waters and north of the Greater Antilles through tonight. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

In the eastern Atlantic, tranquil conditions prevail under surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature