Special Features

Tropical Storm Arlene is centered near 24.5N 85.5W at 03/0900 UTC or 140 nm W of the Dry Tortugas moving SSE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft in the NW quadrant of Arlene. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 120 nm east of the center of Arlene. Weakening is expected, and Arlene is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low tonight and dissipate Sunday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 50W and 56W, and inland over S French Guiana and N Suriname.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from near 12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N36W, it then resumes from 06N41W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ, between 40W and 46W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arlene.

Outside of Tropical Storm Arlene, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range E of 90W, and 2-4 ft W of 90W..

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Arlene will weaken to a tropical depression near 23.7N 84.7W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 23.3N 82.8W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. Elsewhere over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into middle of next week.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate winds are noted east of 70W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range east of 70W, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from low pressure near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. A stationary front extends across the northern waters from 31N24W to 27N39W to 30N60W. High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 23N27W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of 27N between 55W and 65W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 70W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extends from low pressure near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida late this weekend through early Mon.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al