TRACKING THE TROPICS


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near 31N76W to inland central Florida will progress eastward across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind are forecast to reach near-gale to gale-force north of 29N between 72W and 77W by late tonight into early on Tue. Seas with these winds will be in the range of 9 to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front to north of 29N between 62W and 67W by early Tue afternoon. As this front weakens Tue afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

THe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 00N37W and to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, west of 17W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from SW Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 24N, east of 89W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring behind the frontal boundary based on recent scatterometer satellite data and surface observations. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas found near 25N96W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the basin on Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind the front will continue through Tue morning. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the coast on Thu, then track east- northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a cold front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and seas to the affected waters, as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central and southeastern Caribbean waters. Seas in the areas described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will continue near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale warning over the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N75W to central Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident north of 26N and west of 70W. Strong to near gale-force NW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the frontal boundary to 26N and west of 63W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure system located near 28N39W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 26N and seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Gale force winds are expected tonight and Tue, mainly for the waters north of 27N. Weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern Florida and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado