Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands late this weekend or early next week. Some development is possible thereafter while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system later next week and further development is unlikely after that time. * formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1002 mb low near 75W to the northern Bahamas near 77W to northwest Cuba near 80W. Gale-force winds will develop west the front mainly north of 28N between 74W-80W by this evening. These gale-force winds are expected to continue through Sunday with seas ranging 10-18 ft. See the latest NWS high seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under awips/wmo headers hsfat2/fznt02 kNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W south of 19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 15W to 21W to 33W. The ITCZ continues from 33W to the coast of Brazil near 51W. Scattered moderate convection is along The Monsoon Trough from 00N-16N between 08W-24W.

Gulf of Mexico

High pressure continues to build in across the Gulf with dry air filling in. Light showers may be over the western bay of Campeche. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf.

A cold front will move across the eastern Gulf late mon and tue. High pressure building behind that front will allow fresh to strong southeast return flow off the Texas coast by mid week.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front continues to press southeastward across the northwest Caribbean, extending from south-central Cuba near 81W to the Gulf of Honduras near 88W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras from 16N-18N between 84W-88W. Isolated moderate convection is over the southwest Caribbean due to the eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough, mostly south of 10N. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades throughout most of the Caribbean with moderate winds north of Colombia. A strong upper level ridge is over the eastern portion of the basin with strong subsidence.

The front will stall and weaken from the windward passage to northeast Nicaragua on sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the northwest Caribbean. A weak trough will drift west toward the Leeward Islands through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

See the special features section for more information in regards to the developing gale in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from a 1002 mb low near 75W to the northern Bahamas near 77W to northwest Cuba near 80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front north of 29N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within 90 nm of the front south of 29N. A trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 54W to 58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-23N between 43W-56W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic from a 1030 mb high near 29W. An upper level low is noted over the tropical Atlantic near 50W enhancing convection.

The front will stall and weaken from near Bermuda to the windward passage by late sun into mon. Gale force winds are expected this weekend over the northern waters west of 70W, as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of South Carolina. Marine conditions will then improve across the area through mid week as the low pressure moves farther north of the area.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Formosa

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature