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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coastline of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N19W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N19W to 03N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 25W and 31W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends from the SE Gulf near 24N84W to a 1015 mb surface low centered off the Texas coast near 27N94W. A cold front stretches from the low center to near Tampico, Mexico. Surface observations along with a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate strong NE winds of 30 kt to the N of the low, with 20-25 kt NW winds in the wake of the front with 4 to 7 ft seas. Weak high pressure dominates the pattern elsewhere across the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers is noted over the northern Gulf and also W of the cold front. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula extends from 22N91W to 18N92W.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move into the southeast Gulf through tonight then dissipate along with the front, ahead of another cold front expected to enter the northeast Gulf this evening. The second front will move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night, allowing high pressure to build over the northern Gulf through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 8-9 ft are expected in association with the low.

Caribbean Sea

Weak high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and just S of Hispaniola, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh northerly winds are off the Atlantic coastline of Nicaragua. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas, except a little higher near Atlantic passages where N swell persists. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of Panama, and also near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. A surface trough crosses the US/UK Virgin Islands and extends into the eastern Caribbean to near 12N66W. Some shower activity is noted near the northern end of the trough axis affecting the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist over all but the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate N to NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through the NE Caribbean passages through late tonight into Mon. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night, then stall and dissipate Tue night through Wed. High pressure north of the front will induce strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N65W and continues SW to the NW Bahamas. Mainly light winds are seen near the frontal boundary based on scatterometer data with the exception of gentle to moderate NW winds just off NE Florida. Weak high pressure of 1019 mb follows the front. Large northerly swell has been moving across the Atlantic waters east of 60W over the past couple of days, but this is starting to subside from west to east. Another set of long period NE swell will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas later today into tonight building seas to 4-7 ft, highest E f 70W.

For the forecast west of 65W, a reinforcing cold front will move off northeast Florida late today, reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon, then start to stall from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, a mix of northerly swell will continue to move through the waters east of the Bahamas into early next week, then subside Mon night through Tue.

Farther east, a recent scatterometer pass captured the presence of a 1015 mb low pressure centered near 27N54W. Fresh to strong winds are within about 90 nm on the southern semicircle of the low center. A surface trough extends from the low to near 30N52W. The same scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift related to this trough. Another trough stretches southward from the low center to near 22N53W. Seas of 9-11 ft in NE swell are noted per an altimeter pass on the E side of the low and troughs. Convection is displaced to the NE of the low center affecting mainly the waters just N of area between 48W-53W. A strong ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic anchored by 1038 mb high pressure located just N of the Azores. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 40W is supporting some shower activity north of 27N between 35W and 40W. A surface trough is embedded within this area along 39W/40W N of 22N. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds along the southern periphery of the above mentioned high pressure, and northeast of line roughly from the Cabo Verde Islands to 31N42W. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northeast of this line as well. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low to medium ash concentration is noted in the vicinity of the volcano drifting towards the SW. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature