TRACKING THE TROPICS


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure area off the Carolina coast will rapidly intensify as it moves to the north of Bermuda later this morning. A trailing cold front will sweep rapidly eastward along with the low pressure. For waters south of 31N later this morning, this pattern will support strong to gale force winds north of 27N east of the front, and north of 28N west of front. Wave heights will build to 8 to 13 ft north of 28N. The gale force winds will reach as far as 50W north of 30N through early evening, then winds will diminish below gale force as supporting the low pressure shifts farther north of the area. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force winds along with rough seas will expand eastward with the front across the area north of 26N through this evening. Winds will diminish through tonight, but large NW swell will persist across the waters north of 22N and east of 70W through late Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains mainly over the African continent, reaching the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 05N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N and between 25W and 45W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front stretches from Steinhatchee, Florida to the nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure area off the coast of Texas near 28N97W. A stationary front also extends from the low pressure to Veracruz near 20N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen north of 26N and west of 92W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found north of 27N and west of 89W, while similar NW to W winds are noted behind the front over the western Gulf waters. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the portion of the front over the northern Gulf will lift northward today. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf later this morning, merging with the residual boundary south of the low. This front will weaken as it moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front, diminishing late today in the western Gulf and on Sun in the northern Gulf waters. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery south of 17N and west of 77W, while fairly tranquil conditions are prevalent elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure system north of the area and lower pressures over the SW Caribbean sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the eastern and central portions of the basin. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through midweek as a strong ridge remains north of the area. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas expected elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N35W to 27N44W, becoming a stationary front to 25N52W to 31N61W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted east of the front and north of 27N. Combined seas to 8 ft are evident north of the front, mainly in NW swell. Meanwhile, seas of 8-10 ft are occurring north of 28N and west of 28W to the front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure system near 37N46W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and wave heights of 6-8 ft in NW swell extend across the tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Moderate NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of Africa, with 6-8 ft seas in NW swell. Mostly light to gentle breezes and moderate seas in NW swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken.

Posted 10 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado