Tracking the tropics

Tropics Watch

Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Corrected website for the high seas forecast

Special tropical weather outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic.

A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next special tropical weather outlook on this system will be issued by 9 a.m. EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. * formation chance through 5 days, low, 30 percent.

High seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under awips header nfdhsfat1, wmo header fznt01 kwbc, and available on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Posted 8 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Heavy Rainfall in Central America

A central American gyre will develop in the eastern north Pacific Ocean within the next couple days. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America through the weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall, especially for areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local weather service for more information.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is 71W/72W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm of the southern side of Hispaniola, between 70W and 76W between Cuba and Jamaica.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 14W, to 20W, and to 23W. The ITCZ continues from 23W, to 34W and to 44W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 05N to 09N between 10W and 17W, within 360 nm to the south and southeast of The Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate to strong is in clusters, within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ, between 34W and 44W; and from 03N to 08N between 44W and 55W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 75 nm on either side of The Monsoon Trough and the ITCZ between 20W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10W eastward.

Gulf of Mexico

An upper level trough passes through central Texas, southward, to the isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 25N to 29N between 89W and 94W. A stationary front is passing through southern southwest Louisiana, into central and southern sections of Texas.

An upper level trough passes through the Florida panhandle to the southwestern corner of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the waters and parts of Florida, between 79W and 86W.

The current weak Texas coast cold front will move into the northwest and north central Gulf of Mexico overnight. The front will stall and dissipate in the northwest Gulf through Saturday. A second and reinforcing front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The second cold front will weaken, as it drifts southward into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the special features section, for more information about the heavy rainfall that is expected in Central America, during the next few days.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, continues to cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow and trough are the southern extensions of the upper level Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 60W and 70W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible lingering precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward.

The current tropical wave, that is to the south of the Dominican Republic, will reach the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. Widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in adjacent sections of Central America and South America, into the next week.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean between 47W and 72W. A 1017 mb low pressure center is near 56W. A surface trough extends from 50W, through the 1017 mb low pressure center, to 61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to 720 nm of the 1017 mb low pressure center, in the northeast quadrant. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm to the north of the surface trough, and within 300 nm to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure to the north of the area will move eastward on Sunday. The area of high pressure will move eastward, in advance of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to palm beach Florida on Monday. The cold front will stall, and dissipate along 25N, through Tuesday night.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature