wjxt logo

TRACKING THE TROPICS


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic
Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 4 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning and move out of the basin by tonight. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico this afternoon and spread south to offshore Veracruz later today. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gusts to gale force can be expected across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gales will diminish by Sat, and conditions will improve by Sun. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast later today, and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of the SW N Atlantic basin Fri night and Sat. Gale winds will develop north of 27N late tonight with the sea heights building to near 20 feet. Gales will end by Sat night, with winds diminishing by Sun and seas subsiding by Mon. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 02N25W and 01N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 12W to 32W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning.

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico from 20N95W to 24N97W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NW Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. The latest buoys across the Gulf of Mexico indicate seas range 3 to 6 ft, with the highest off the Brownsville, TX coast.

For the forecast, a trong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning and sweep across the basin, exiting by tonight. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico this afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz by this evening. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. The central and eastern Gulf of Mexico can expect frequent gusts to gale force this afternoon through Sat morning with rough seas. Gales near the Mexican coast will diminish Sat along with the frequent gusts across much of the Gulf. Conditions will improve by Sun.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends south of the Yucatan Channel from 22N81W to 20N87W. A trough also extends across the Windward Passage. No significant convection is noted across the Caribbean at this time. Strong winds are noted off the coast of Colombia with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds will pulse offshore Colombia early this morning and tonight with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and move across the southwest Caribbean by Sat night. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will follow the front with rough seas across the western portion of the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected over the Windward Passage Sun through Tue behind the front.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning.

A stationary front continues to linger from 31N71W to Cape Canaveral, FL near 28N80W. A 1013 mb low is noted south of the front near 27N72W with a trough extending southwest of the low to 23N80W and isolated thunderstorms east of the low. Strong winds are noted north of the front with seas 8 to 11 ft. Closer to the Florida coast, buoys show seas 5 to 8 ft. A 1018 mb low is noted near 24N54W with a trough extending along the low from 21N to 31N. A second trough is noted from 22N60W to 27N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near these features from 22N to 31N between 53W to 64W. A third trough extends from 13N44W to 20N44W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 14N to 25N between 37W and 46W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft across the central Atlantic. High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with moderate to locally fresh winds and seas 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward today with the strong winds moving north of the area by this afternoon. The low pressure between Florida and Bermuda will dissipate today. A strong cold front will then push off the northeast Florida coast by this evening and bring strong to near gale force winds behind it. Gale force winds winds will develop N of 27N tonight, with seas building to near 20 ft. The gale force winds will end by Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by Mon.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature