TRACKING THE TROPICS


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southern Caribbean Sea: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southern Caribbean Sea near Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, high, 90 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Western Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 1 hour, 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC.

Special Features

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 11.9N 69.7W at 29/0000 UTC or 50 nm WSW of Curacao moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are within 90 nm in the N semicircle of the center over the forecast waters. As of 2215 UTC, numerous moderate to strong convection is within 270 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. On the forecast track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and near the northern coast of Venezuela tonight, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thu and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thu and on Fri. The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Fri. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Western Gulf of Mexico: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized to designate the system as a tropical depression. As of 2215 UTC, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 23N to 30N between 91W and 97W. Fresh winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in this area. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thu. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas later on Thu. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 22W from 02N to just NE of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 02N- 11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 02N to 17N is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 44W and 55W. Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west- northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 52W from 02N-12N is moving W near 10 kt. As this wave is forecast to absorbed by the wave to its east Thu, associated convection has been described in the paragraph above.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 83W from just W of the Cayman Islands to western Panama is moving W at near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 78W and 84W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 10N19W. The ITCZ begins near 08N21W to 07N40W, from 07N44W to 07N50W, and from 08N53W to 10N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 26W-35W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A low pressure over the NW Gulf has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See Special Features section above for details.

Convection associated with a front over the southern U.S. Has moved inland from the northern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 29N between 84W and 88W. A surface trough previously over the Bay of Campeche has dissipated. Gentle winds and seas of 1-2 ft prevail over the basin, outside of the low pressure area in the northwest Gulf. Near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, locally moderate winds are occurring.

For the forecast outside of the northwest Gulf low pressure area, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the S Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details about the tropical wave along 83W.

Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong trades ongoing over much of the remainder of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6 to 8 in the central and SW basin, and 2 to 4 in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection has moved off the western coasts of Haiti and Jamaica this afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to 11.8N 71.8W Thu morning, 12.0N 75.6W Thu afternoon, 11.7N 79.4W Fri morning, 11.4N 82.4W Fri afternoon, then inland to 11.1N 85.1W Sat morning. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles Thu, move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri, and into the central Caribbean Sun. A surge in winds and seas are expected with this wave.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic that has a low potential of tropical formation into the weekend.

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the SE Florida coast. This trough and associated upper level low are inducing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 24N to 29W between 77W and 80W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the vicinity.

A weak upper-level low near 25N66W is causing scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N between 62W and 67W. Farther E, a surface trough over the central Atlantic along 48W N of 22N is aiding in the formation of scattered moderate convection along and within 150 nm E of the trough axis. Ridging prevails elsewhere. N of 24N, gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 40, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Farther east, a large area of fresh to locally strong NE winds prevails E to the Africa coast, with the highest winds funneling through the Canary Islands. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are in this area of fresh winds. To the S of 24N, fresh trades dominate, with locally strong winds N of Hispaniola and entering the adjacent Windward Passage.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters. This will support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N.

Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik/Lewitsky