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Hurricanes


Tropics Watch


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 week, 4 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning

A cold front is along 82.5W 89W. The front becomes stationary from 89W to 94W. Expect nw-to-n gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet in north to northeast swell, within 95W to 94W to 96W to 96W to 95W to 95W. This event is forecast to be ending during the next few hours. Please read the latest high seas forecast: miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC, the latest offshore forecast: miaoffnt4/fznt24 kNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning

A cold front is along 75W 81W. Expect n-to-ne winds 20 to 30 knots within 77W to 81W to 81W to 76W to 77W. Frequent gusts to 35 knots are forecast north of 29.5N within 60 nm of the shore. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. This event is forecast to last for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest high seas forecast: miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC, the latest offshore forecast: miaoffnt3/fznt23 kNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 13W to 16W. The ITCZ continues from 16W to 20W 30W, crossing the equator along 40W, to the coastal plains of Brazil near 45W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are from 07N southward from 38W eastward.

Gulf of Mexico

The cold front passes through Florida, about 60 nm to the north of lake okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The front is stationary, from the central Gulf of Mexico, curving southward to the isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Expect nw-to-n gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet in north to northeast swell, within 95W to 94W to 96W to 96W to 95W to 95W. This event is forecast to be ending during the next few hours. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 17.5N to 20.5N, in the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm to the south of the cold front between 84W and 88W.

The current frontal boundary will stall out completely later tonight. The front will weaken, and move to the nw-n through Friday night, as low pressure forms in the west central Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure will move northeast across the north central waters through early Saturday. The associated cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night. The front will leave behind a dissipating boundary across the far southeast Gulf on Sunday. High pressure will build southward across the central and east Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will set up in the western Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. A second cold front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Caribbean Sea

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 65W to 64W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 660 nm to the east of the trough from 17N to 22N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the eastern side of the trough, and elsewhere from 14N northward between 63W and 84W.

Broad surface low pressure covers the southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea. The Monsoon Trough is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 60 nm to 120 nm to the south of Panama. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the southwest corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show northeast wind flow in the same area. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 11N southward from 80W westward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the region, gradually, through Friday, as high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. The trade winds will increase again in the central Caribbean Sea early next week, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and moderate north to northeast swell, are expected in the tropical north Atlantic Ocean, through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 73W, to the Florida east coast along 28N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to the northwest of the line that passes through 70W to the Florida east coast along 25N.

An upper level trough extends from a 35W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 48W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 58W, 65W, and eventually to 64W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 24N to 31N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the north of the line that passes through 24W 36W 55W 66W. Rainshowers are possible also from 64W westward.

The upper level trough is along 65W to 64W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 660 nm to the east of the trough from 17N to 22N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the eastern side of the trough, and elsewhere from 14N northward between 63W and 84W.

The current cold front will reach from 73W to west palm beach, Florida by late tonight. The front will reach from 70W to 76W, and stationary to west palm beach on Thursday. The front will weaken gradually through Friday. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected north of the front, from tonight through late Thursday night. Large seas are expected in the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through early on Friday. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the far north central waters beginning late on Friday night. These winds will expand eastward through Saturday night, in advance of the next cold front that is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S.a. Coast on Saturday. The second front will move quickly across the waters north of 27N through Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds will move northeast of the area on Sunday night. Return flow will develop early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 18 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mt

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature