TRACKING THE TROPICS
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, near 0 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia every night through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft each night under the strongest winds.
Atlantic Significant Swell: A strengthening low pressure system over the north Atlantic will produce gale to storm-force winds over the next few days north of our area. The system will send large NW to N swell southward, with seas greater than 12 ft entering out northern waters early Sat and then expanding southeastward. Seas to 12 to 17 ft are forecast to cover an area from 22N to 31N between 57W and 22W Sat through Mon. The highest seas of 15 to 17 ft are forecast to be confined to north of 29N between 51W and 37W Sat afternoon through Sun morning. The significant wave heights will diminish below 12 ft Tue.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 04N17.5W to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to 01S31W to 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and west of 21W.
Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico suppressing the development of deep convection. Fresh SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the central and western Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over the E Gulf with seas 3-5 ft. Over the south-central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche, fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure along the U.S. Eastern seaboard will shift eastward in response to a weakening cold front that will move across the NE Gulf over the weekend. The fresh winds will diminish late tonight. Atlantic high pressure will build in again over the area early next week. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week.
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Pockets of isolated, weak showers are seen across the NE and SW Caribbean Sea. However, the dry environment is suppressing the formation of deep convection. Fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong to gale force in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft, except for 8-13 ft in the strong to gale area. From the Windward Passage toward NE Jamaica, strong NE winds are likely occurring with seas around 6 ft. Fresh E winds are likely occurring in the lee of Cuba and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Moderate trades and 3-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage through Sat evening. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras every night through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend, then slowly subside through early next week.
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant swell event forecast for the central and eastern Atlantic.
A cold front extends from 31N49W to 24N70W, stationary to southern Andros Island, Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the front, mainly east of 54W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of the boundary and west of 64W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are NW of the front, north of 29N between the front and 62W, where seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are present elsewhere north of 27N and between 42W and 65W, along with seas of 6-9 ft.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered near 36N17W and lower pressures along the W coast of Africa near Mauritania support fresh to near-gale force NE winds north of 22N and east of 29W. Seas in this region are 7-10 ft. In the tropical Atlantic, from 05N to 17N, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 6-7 ft seas are found. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move slowly southeastward today, and reach along 22/23N tonight before it weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will cause winds to increase to fresh to strong early this morning east of the NW Bahamas, then begin to diminish W of 65W after midnight tonight. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida tonight in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sat evening. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N59W to 27N68W and to 26N73W by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. The fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front will shift eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N late Sun night.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen