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Tropics Watch


Gulf
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Atlantic
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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is moving southward and is now located a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 50 percent.

A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.0N 92.5W at 19/0900 UTC or 250 nm E of mouth of The Rio Grande moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The hazards to the public and property will be: storm surge, wind, rainfall, and surf. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 24.9N 58.2W at 19/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Bermuda moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 200 nm of the center in the S semicircle. TEDDY will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Large swells are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas. The large swells will spread to Bermuda and the eastern coast of the United States of America later today. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 13.1N 36.9W at 19/0900 UTC or 770 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Precipitation: Scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is 1008 mb located near 37N 31W, or just S of the western Azores this morning. The cyclone is forecast to move south for the next day or two then stall over the relatively warm waters several hundred miles S of the Azores. The cyclone could then obtain tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week will it remains nearly stationary. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical formation in the next 48 hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo France.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N20W, and to 15N24W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm to 400 nm of the monsoon trough between 14W and 18W. Also, scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 18W and 28W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through the eastern coast of Florida along 27N, to the western coast of Florida along 26N, into the Gulf of Mexico near 25N87W. No significant deep convective precipitation is associated with the cold front.

Tropical Storm Beta near 26.0N 92.5W 996 mb at 5 AM EDT moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Beta will move to 26.6N 92.6W this afternoon, 26.9N 93.4W Sun morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 94.3W Sun afternoon, Hurricane Beta will be near 27.4N 95.2W Mon morning, 27.7N 95.9W Mon afternoon, and 28.1N 96.3W Tue morning. Beta will weaken to a tropical storm offshore the Texas coast early Wed A cold front will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing fresh to strong NE winds into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

An upper level inverted trough is moving through the area that extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted in Cuba. Isolated moderate to strong convection covers areas from Honduras to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The comparatively strongest convective precipitation is occurring in parts of Belize and northern Guatemala, and in the western sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface trough extends from 14N63W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N67W. Precipitation: scattered moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 14N southward from 73W westward.

Tropical Storm Wilfred near 13.1N 36.9W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Wilfred will move to 13.8N 39.0W this afternoon, 14.8N 41.7W Sun morning, 15.8N 44.4W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 16.5N 46.8W Mon morning. Tropical Depression Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low and move to 16.8N 48.6W Mon afternoon, then dissipate Tue morning. Long period northeasterly swell from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from the area in the Central Atlantic, will continue to impact tropical Atlantic waters through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha moved inland over Portugal overnight and will have no more impact on Atlantic waters.

A nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure center is located near 20N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the SW of the center

A cold front has emerged off the SE US coast and stretches from 31N74W to 26N81W. Behind this front, strong NE winds are being observed.

Category 3 Hurricane Teddy near 24.9N 58.2W 952 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Teddy will move to 26.3N 59.5W this afternoon, 28.0N 61.2W Sun morning, 29.5N 62.2W Sun afternoon, 31.6N 61.9W Mon morning, 35.2N 61.1W Mon afternoon, and 39.2N 61.3W Tue morning. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A strong cold front that moved off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight will move SE and weaken, then stall early next week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near gale force winds NE are anticipated across a broad area of Atlantic waters N of 25N from later today through Mon. Tropical Storm Wilfred in the tropical Atlantic is expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching the area early next week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature