JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Weather Authority Alert evening continues and our fist warning is for flooding in Western Putnam County until 12 midnight. More coming up on the Ten O'Clock News.
This flood warning is classic for most long lasting rain events (this one started before sunrise) and that is, flood warning's start coming out just as the rains are coming to an end.
Remember, flooding takes time. The exception is when we see flash flooding. Flash flooding along Black Creek requires about 5-6" of rain in under 6 hours.
Not happening with today's rains, which are going on 15 plus hours and are only reaching 2-3" across the area.
For the remainder of this evening the rains will slowly taper-off, the WAAD will end at 11 pm and despite some remaining downpours. Expect any sunrise showers to be lighter and most of these downpours will linger in our southern counties.
Overall, our Friday evening continues with the Weather Authority Alert Day. Rainfall has been on the light side around Jacksonville, with amounts right around an inch, but heavier rains will spread across the entire Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia area before 6pm. These heavier rains will just complicated already nasty travel conditions. Numerous accidents have taken place, including two fatalities.
Rainfall amounts have been heaviest west of I-75 from west of Lake City to west of Gainesville. A large region there has already seen 4 or more inches of rain and many locations there are under flood warnings or advisories.
In South Georgia, where recent storm systems have left between 8-15" of rain over the past two weeks, rainfall amounts of another 1-2" will be more of a nuisance than actually close roads. Yet, the entire area is under a flood watch until early Saturday morning.
There is a minor severe threat with the greatest threat for folks living well south of Jacksonville. That would include from Gainesville to Palatka to St. Augustine. The Storm Prediction Center (which monitors severe weather threats for the country) has placed the Jacksonville area under a slight severe weather threat on Friday afternoon.
Why all the rains/storms? We are being "El Nino'ed" again.
It's time to deal with another shot of "El Nino" as the third' southern tracking storm system (in a row) will impact Jacksonville Friday afternoon through early Saturday. Like the prior two systems, heavy rains will impact parts, but not everyone, across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Current forecast models have slowed from earlier models, which means the heavier rain arrival will be delayed both in getting here and getting out of here.
El Nino is a condition of the Pacific Ocean (yes, Pacific Ocean) along the equator where water temperatures run much, much above normal. This warmer than normal water stretches for thousands of miles and greatly impacts weather across the globe, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
Greatest impact? Is to charge-up the Southern sub-tropical jet stream, which recently has taken up a track from California to the Carolinas. For Jacksonville, it means big threats of heavy rains and possible severe storms. Basically, what we will see on Friday.
Flooding will be a concern, many rivers in Southern Georgia are running in flood stage right now and McCoys Creek and other areas that quickly flood will be most impacted. If the concentration of rain slows or "trains" over northern Clay County, then there could be some issues along both forks of Black Creek. At this time this seems unlikely as this area needs to see more than 5" in less than five hours to see flooding.
To see more on these rivers go here.