Rutherford leads in congressional race, but many undecided

Former Jacksonville sheriff leads in GOP race to replace Ander Crenshaw

Former Jacksonville Sheriff John Rutherford holds a double-digit lead in the Republican race to replace retiring Congressman Ander Crenshaw, but more than half of GOP voters in the district remain undecided, according to a new poll.

The district includes parts of Duval and St. Johns counties and all of Nassau County. 

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The survey of likely Republican voters, conducted by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Laboratory, shows Rutherford with 27 percent of the vote.

His nearest rival, Hans Tanzler, got support from 13 percent of those surveyed, while state Rep. Lake Ray checked in at 9 percent.

Four other candidates polled in the low single digits.

But 46 percent of voters said they didn't know who they would support, meaning the Congressional District 4 race remains volatile.

"Rutherford leads early in this race, but considering the vast amount of indecision among likely voters, Tanzler and Ray could still be contenders," Michael Binder, faculty director of the lab, said. "Although Rutherford is the front-runner, I expected the size of his lead to be much larger."

The poll, which was conducted June 28 and June 29, surveyed 403 likely Republican voters. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Whoever wins the GOP primary in the heavily Republican district will be face Democrat David Bruderly and independent Gary Koniz in November.

"Breaking down the results by county reflects relatively consistent support for Rutherford and Tanzler, while Lake Ray’s support dwindles outside of Duval County. Furthermore, the percent of likely Republican voters unsure for whom they will vote is substantially larger in St. Johns and Nassau Counties in comparison to Duval," Binder said.


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