JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – UPDATE: The potential for Invest 90L to develop into a named storm has increased from 20% to 30% over the next 48 hours. At this time, the area of low pressure remains very disorganized and further development of this system is still unlikely.
Currently, there is fair consensus in the models showing the storm will track west into Mexico before dissipating completely. There are still a few models that take this storm west but those solutions are more unlikely due to the presence of high pressure over Florida; the same high that has given us nice weather.
There is a lot working against this system. Currently, the waters of the gulf are running cooler than normal with some departures as much as one to one and half degrees below normal. Second, the upper level winds are very strong and will act to decapitate any storms that try to develop.
Although, north Florida won't be directly affected by this disturbance, we'll continue to monitor the evolution of this system over the next few days.
We're scantily in the 2014 hurricane season and already we have something stirring up the waters of the gulf and the minds of meteorologists along the Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that has been festering down that way the last few days.
Currently the NHC gives this disturbance, dubbed Invest 90L, a 10 percent shot of development over the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance over the next five days.
One of the global models, the GFS, is nothing if not persistent in developing a storm of some kind in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The model then takes the system into the Florida peninsula, near Naples, as a tropical storm bringing with it excessive rain and some gusty winds.
It's worth noting that the GFS model (the orange line on the map shown) is just one of many models. As you can see in the image above, the models are all over the place with the eventual path of this possible system.
At this time, it is too early to say definitively if this will develop or how strong it will be. Statistically, the odds of this becoming a hurricane are very small; especially considering the waters of the gulf are running below normal for this time of year.
As always, we'll continue to monitor the progression of this disturbance and update our all our News4Jax platforms, as well as Twitter and Facebook.