58ºF

More rain likely, thunderstorms possible Sunday

Severe weather should remain to west and north of Jacksonville

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Skies continue to slowly clear, especially south of Jacksonville. This sounds great and for about half of us, today will be a decent November afternoon. Yet, the sun and warmer temperatures are going to destabilize the atmosphere which will kick off a round of storms, a few may become severe.

As of noon radar shows a few random small showers around the area. Based upon this and short term forecast models it appears that more concentrated showers and storms will not develop until after 3pm.

The strongest chance for severe weather is to the west and north of Jacksonville, west of Interstate 75 and north into Southeast Georgia. Those storms are expected to roll through after 4 p.m.

The Jacksonville area saw around an inch of rain in some parts of town Sunday morning, particularly in the Arlington area, beaches and near the airport.

More soaking rain is expected as the afternoon storms move in. 

A Weather Authority Alert Day was declared for Sunday for the heavy rain through the morning hours and the possibility of severe weather by the afternoon.

A vigorous area of low pressure moving over the northern Gulf Coast will swing a warm front through our area Sunday afternoon bringing widespread heavy rain through the morning followed by strong thunderstorms in the afternoon as the low approaches the area from the west.

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Okla. has placed our Georgia counties as well as the Suwannee valley of Florida under a slight risk of severe weather for this afternoon. They have removed Jacksonville from this threat. That said, we are still close enough to the slight risk that we'll have to pay close attention by this afternoon. 

An even greater risk of severe weather exists in the panhandle near Tallahassee where the SPC has issued an "enhanced risk." The primary threat with the storms Sunday afternoon with be damaging straight line winds and the possibility of tornadoes.

Images: Tracking wet weekend weather

As of 8 a.m. Sunday, there were no watches or warnings in effect for any of the counties in our viewing area. That said, we are anticipating that a tornado watch will be issued for portions of the Suwannee Valley later this afternoon -- possibly including areas in southeast Georgia as well. 

The Hydrological Prediction Center, as seen at left, is indicating between 2 and 4 inches of rain across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. With the onset of heavy rain, flooding will be possible in the regular, low-lying spots.

News4Jax will have hourly weather cut-ins beginning at 11 a.m. to keep you aware of the situation throughout the day.

Here's the break down:

A powerful low pressure system over southeast Texas will continue to move east toward Florida this afternoon. This area of low pressure is what we call a negatively tilted trough. This is an indication of a rapidly developing cyclone with strong atmospheric dynamics that make severe weather conditions ripe.

This low will develop ahead of a powerful cold front that will drive in much chillier temperatures into our area by midweek.

That cold front will pose another heavy rain risk on Tuesday as models indicate that the front may work through our area very slowly allowing heavy rain to form over our area. Currently, guidance indicates a 74 percent chance of rain on Tuesday with highs quickly falling into the 50s by the afternoon. So while the morning may start off stormy and balmy, the temps will continue to fall throughout the day.

THANKSGIVING:

Expect the day of the Pilgrams' feast to be mild with abundant sunshine across not just Jacksonville but the entire southeastern US. 

There will be some lake effect snow in western New York with a few scattered snow showers across the Great Lakes region. 

The Pacific Northwest also looks to be a bit wet and snowy but the remainder of the nation looks to remain quiet. 

Of course we'll continue to refine the forecast over the next few days.