58ºF

Rainy start to the work week

The week begins on a warm, wet note and will end cold and dry

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Well, it's Monday again. I'm not happy about it either but at least we're in it together. Here's what you need to know to get you out the door this morning:

First, pockets of heavy rain have developed over our region stretching from southeast Georgia and areas over northeast Florida. At the time of this entry (6:23 a.m.), heavy rain was being detected by our live 5 doppler radar systems over central and northern St. Johns county, areas along coastal Duval as well as a heavy band of rain from the state line of Nassau and Camden counties stretching west through Baker and northern Columbia counties as well. 

The rain is just that: rain. There are no lightning strikes being detected but it does look like the rain is going to slow your commute to work. 

The vast majority of the heavy rain Monday morning should be moving out by 10 a.m. leaving behind cloudy, wet conditions. This doesn't mean that we'll dry out. We'll maintain high chances of rain the rest of the afternoon meaning the afternoon commute could be wet, too.

FORECAST:

It's a tale of two different models. Below are both and it's pretty clear that there is a disagreement on the amount of rain we'll see today. The first four panel is the GFS model. The second is our in-house RPM model. 



Now here is the RPM Model which is a much drier solution that what is being shown above:



The most glaring difference is at noon and 2 p.m. The RPM model (second) is much drier than the GFS (first). 

Either way, expect a gloomy, overcast day with temperatures governed by those clouds -- keeping things cool with temperatures only in the low 70s for highs. 

Heading into the rest of the week, things remain rather unsettled with a chance of rain every single day but as we get ready to close out March, a very unseasonably strong cold front will sweep into our area bring back a taste of winter.

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Taking a look at what we call the MOS Guidance above, you can see the rain chances for each day (in the green box). It is showing a 73 percent chance of rain today and then dropping to categorical or slight chances of rain throughout the week as temperatures begin to spike into the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a strong cold front by the weekend.

Seen in yellow are the high and low temperatures for Saturday and Sunday (highs on the right, lows on the left). By Sunday, this model is showing highs only in the mid to upper 50s! That's pretty remarkable for so late in the season.

If you don't like the cold weather then I have two pieces of advice here: Easter seems to be the break point every year for the cold. Anything, even freezing temps, are possible before Easter. Second, it's still 6 days away and this may change. Those living in the more rural areas and normally colder spots, you will have to watch carefully for frost by the end of the week.