Weekend Forecast: Severe Weather Risk Sat?

Weather Authority Alert Day Possible Sat and Sun


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The weekend is finally here. Emphasis on finally. This weekend is jam packed with all sorts of events ranging from Rockville Music Fest to Greek Fest to the Opening of the Beaches so let's get right to it:

First, we are monitoring the possibility of issuing a Weather Authority Alert Day for both Saturday and Sunday for heavy rain and isolated severe storms that may affect a wide range of events this weekend.

Temperature wise, we're going to be well above normal heading into the final weekend of April. Normal high temperatures for late April are in the upper 70s. We'll be in the mid to upper 80s for the weekend. I suppose that's the good news for those of you who like the warm weather.

The bad news is, we'll be dodging rain drops both Saturday and Sunday. Is this weekend going to be a washout? No. I suspect however you may need a plan B for your outdoor activities just in case. Also, for Pete's sake, don't wash your car. It always seems to trigger the rain.

Let's go ahead and take a look at a few of the models down below.


You see what I see. The model above is for Saturday and just by looking at it, doesn't look like it's "all that." This is one of the reasons why I said this weekend won't be a washout. I think Saturday will have abundant clouds in the afternoon as a storm system approaches from the west.

From what I've seen, most of the rain should stay north of the state line. That is not to say we won't see rain in the immediate Jacksonville area because I think we very well could. It just won't last all day. Temperatures should move up into the low to mid 80s under mostly cloudy skies. 

Any storms that do move into our regions will encounter marginal conditions for severe weather development. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Okla. has placed the northern half of our viewing area, basically I-10 northward, under a slight risk -- which represents an enhanced risk of severe storms.


Here is a look at the same model for Sunday:

The models on Sunday are looking a bit wetter but only for the early morning through early afternoon. A fairly decent cold front will swing through the area and begin to clear us out by Sunday afternoon. That said, I think we will see the sun after what is likely to start out as a gloomy, gray Sunday. 

The opening of the beaches kicks off at 2 p.m. and while we may be dodging some coastal showers in the beginning, I think, at least for now, those will begin to push off shore and leave us mostly dry for the remainder of the event. 

Like Saturday, there is the possibility of pockets of very heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather. The key word here is isolated. This will not be a widespread event.

It should be noted that the model below indicates a different story. Here's a look at the GFS model:


As seen in the yellow box, the high temperatures being indicated show mid to upper 80s. Keep in mind that even though we'll have clouds over the area, UV rays go right through clouds. Sun burns will be a dime -a- dozen if you don't protect yourself. Some of the worst burns actually occur on ski slopes as people don't realize that the cloudy skies transmit the rays as if they (clouds) weren't even there and then the snow reflects the rays off the ground. So just keep that in mind.

Looking at the green box, rain chances are shown to be in the mid 60s both Saturday and Sunday. This is a slight deviation from the RPM model above where drier conditions are being indicated. As of now, I'm siding with the RPM model versus the GFS model (the blue box model). 

Finally, the purple box is displaying a 3. That means rainfall accumulations of between .25" and .49 inches can be expected. This I can probably stand behind but those accumulations won't be for everybody. It'll only be for areas where it rains (obviously) which I think will be scattered and not widespread. As John like's to day, "not every backyard."

Here's the breakdown for the opening of the beaches: