JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Let's take a look at this weeks weather.
Summer is settling in across the area as temperatures have exceeded 90 degrees for the first time this year. With the heat comes comes a cranky me and those pesky afternoon showers and storms.
This weeks weather will be considered 'typical' for this time of year with temperatures hovering around 90 each afternoon, give or take a degree or two and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Let's take a look at the GFS MOS guidance:
At first glance, the only thing that really jumps out at me are the temperatures seen in the yellow box. Temperatures are expected to hover near 90 or above for the whole week. This model is even showing mid 90s by Thursday and Friday.
With the temperatures moving into the 90s,it's important to remember how hot temperatures can get inside a car. We've already had a tragedy last week in Columbia county where a child was left in a blistering hot car. How hot can it get in there, even on a mild day? Take a look at the chart I created below:
Even a seemingly mild to warm afternoon, with temperatures near 80 degrees, can equate to temperatures way over 100 degrees inside a car within 30 minutes.
As far as rain chances go, this is a very easy, yet difficult pattern for meteorologists. We know it's likely to rain somewhere. Is it going to be your backyard or your neighbors or the persons yard across town? We don't know. The models just don't have that kind of resolution.
Looking at the green box on the model, rain chance are shown to be low on Monday but increasing to the 60% or likely category by Tuesday and Wednesday before coming back down to the more typical 20 to 30% each afternoon. Again, this is not going to be widespread but where it does rain it could certainly be on the heavy side. Therefore keep the umbrella and sunglasses in the car. You'll likely need both this week.
You know how this goes, it's liquid sunshine baby. Embrace it. It's Florida in the "summer."
Next up is the red box on the model. These numbers represent the quantity of rainfall expected. The 2 showing for Tuesday represents rainfall amounts between .10 and .24 inches. Therefore any rain that does fall may be heavy but brief and accumulations are expected to be light. The 1 showing up for Wednesday means even less rain, less than .10", is anticipated.
Finally, even though it's not hurricane season officially yet, we have already had our first storm of the year. The tropics are expected to remain quiet for the rest of the week.
There is one area of interest on the models around the first day of June. The GFS model continues to show development in the long range (beyond 10 days) but this is pretty typical as the GFS model is known for spinning up fantasy storms in the long range. Nonetheless, it's getting to be that time of year and we'll continue to keep an eye on it.
Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The next season prediction is expected on May 27th from NOAA.