84ºF

St. Patrick's Day and Palm Sunday to bookend wet weekend

Saturday looks wet, Palm Sunday much improved

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – In the spirit of the election season, this weekends forecast is "too close to call." While there are still some outstanding votes left to count, it appears as though the wet weekend is going to win out.

Last week I wrote an article on the possibility of freezing temperatures moving into central and south Georgia with a fairly nice weekend shaping up. The exact opposite is now playing out. It now looks like the cold front won't be nearly as strong as first advertised but will stall out over the top of us; guiding a developing area of low pressure into our region Saturday.

That disturbance may provide a healthy drink for the those of us living along the I-10 corridor. The National Weather Service had this to say in their forecast discussion Wednesday morning:

" ...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVENT...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND ALSO IN NORTH CENTRAL FL."

If models are to be believed, and I'm not completely sold yet, Saturday will be the wet day followed by drying out on Palm Sunday with partly cloudy skies.

The forecast is more complicated than normal due to a cold front that is barely moving and all indications are that this front will pull up stationary somewhere in our area by the weekend. 

Last Tuesday, the models indicated that the front would stall to our south, pushing most of the incoming moisture more into the the I-4 corridor. In fact, the model output statistics (MOS) had our rain chances at a paltry 20% or less under mostly clear skies. Less than 24 hours later, the same model shows overcast and rain with rain chances approaching 70%. 

I suspect that the forecast will continue to be in flux until the models are able to resolve the weather pattern accurately. As of now, have a plan B for the weekend as it appears Saturday will be wet. 

As mentioned previously, it now appears as though there will be no freezing temperatures anywhere close to our area by Sunday and Monday. That said, Last Tuesday's high temperature was 88 degrees; by far the warmest of the year so far. This coming Sunday's temperature will be markedly cooler than that with high temperatures only in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows in the lower 40s. Same for Monday.

If you like cold weather, enjoy the upcoming cool spell. It may very well be the last one of this winter season.

By the way, the first day of Spring is Sunday!