JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Enjoy the taste of fall this week because we may be seeing less cool air this winter. The new NOAA seasonal winter forecast came out Thursday and predicts a warmer and much drier season.
Last winter La Niña kept Jacksonville much warmer than average and it could come back again with more warmth in store for us.
The return of La Nina potentially emerging for the second year in a row has a 55- to 65-percent chance of developing before winter sets in.
The last two winters featured above-average temperatures over much of the nation, with two of the top 10 warmest winters dating to 1895 in the Lower 48 occurring in back-to-back years. Last winter was the seventh warmest and 2015-2016 was all-time record warm winter.
A handful of cold air outbreaks impacted the First Coast. We will get the first Canadian blast Thursday October 26th when lows may start out in the 40s.
Generally rain and cold events are not predictable more than a week in advance because they depend upon the strength and track of winter storms. But average seasonal trends can be predicted with some skill based on larger patterns like El Nino and La Nino.
Another implication is dry weather during El Nino winters in Florida. The chance for less rain over the coming months is greater than 50% during the December through February period.
The next U.S. Winter Outlook will be updated on November 16.