JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Good news. Forecasters at Colorado State University see less activity this hurricane season that they previously expected.
The longest running research group on Friday lowered it prediction for the number of storms and hurricanes for the 2018 season that starts tomorrow.
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CSU's updated prediction reduced the total named storms by one, to 13, from its April 1st preseason forecast which leaned toward a "slightly" above-average season with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Thursday's update is forecasting six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
An average hurricane season according to NOAA has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The biggest factor with this update is the extremely colder than average water located where hurricanes develop during peak season. Sea surface temperatures west of Africa are running 9 degrees below normal making for the coolest conditions since 1994.
Stronger easterly trade winds have upwelled deeper water resulting in the chill. Water temperatures dipped below normal in February staying consistent low due to strong high pressure in the Atlantic boosting the trade winds.
The U.S. and Caribbean need a break after the deadly hyperactive 2017 season caused 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
It was the first year on record with 10 consecutive hurricanes in a row.
CSU will issue another update on July 2.