Rising seas to threaten coastal property values

'Concerned Scientists' report projects future tidal flooding risk

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Ponte Vedra Beach, followed by Sea Island, Georgia, are the most at risk locally for sea level rise over the next 30 years, according to a report the Union of Concerned Scientists released Monday.

Researchers warn these areas and many others around greater Jacksonville will face chronic flooding about twice a month unrelated to meteorological factors.

That means that, even on a blue sky day, the nuisance of flooding will will creep into low-lying riverfront and coastal properties and this could hurt the resale home value along with significant implications for the broader economy.

INTERACTIVE: Projections of sea level impact on NE Florida homes

Out of the 23 coastal states in the country, Florida's tops the risk list for sinking home property values and millions of dollars in losses to the municipal tax base in the coming decades.

According to the report's co-author, Rachel Cleetus, many coastal communities will face declining property values in the years ahead.

“In contrast with previous housing market crashes, values of properties chronically inundated due to sea level rise are unlikely to recover and will only continue to go further underwater, literally and figuratively," said Cleetus, economist and policy director for the Climate and Energy Program at UCS.

Factoring Zillow home prices with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sea level rise scenarios, UCS scientists rank Miami as most vulnerable in Florida followed by Tampa Bay.

Their intermediate scenario assumes global average sea level rise about 1 foot by 2035 and about 4 feet by 2100 based on current ice sheet melting rates and global carbon emissions forecasts through the middle of the century. 

But the risk is very high in North Florida due to the abundance of coastal development.

A map shows 10 percent of homes in St. Augustine and Brunswick are potentially at risk from chronic flooding in 2045, a time frame chosen since it falls within the lifetime of a 30-year mortgage issued today. 

Although Jacksonville Beach's percentage is lower at 6 percent, 5,137 Ponte Vedra Beach homes are at risk with a value of $2,411,710,000.

If properties flood regularly, homeowners risk steep financial losses, along with local services becoming jeopardized, as tax bases erode.

Longtime Vilano Beach resident Teresa Hudgins, who has owned her home for more than 30 years, has experienced flooding firsthand. 

"Downstairs, I had 4 feet of water. So I had to take care off of that and redo the shed," Hudgins told News4Jax on Monday, adding that she's been fortunate in recent storms compared to many of her neighbors.

According to the report, a “rapid decrease in carbon emissions and slower melting of land-based ice” could reduce the number of properties at risk by as much as 80 percent by 2060.
 

 


About the Authors:

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.