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Tropics Watch - July 2018 is off to a fast start with two hurricanes

Neither storm will directly impact the United States

Cold water upwelling has tempered the intensification of TS Chris but it should become a hurricane once it moves into warmer water.
Cold water upwelling has tempered the intensification of TS Chris but it should become a hurricane once it moves into warmer water.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Just having a single hurricane in July is fairly rare, yet, so far, we have had (or will have had) two in July! And they have (will have) both occurred in the first third of the month. The closest storm to Jacksonville is Chris. Chris is not quite there yet as a hurricane but there are strong indications this will happen as soon as it starts moving. It appears Chris would have been a hurricane by now if it hadn't been for its nearly stationary motion. When a storm is stationary over water, it creates an upwelling of cooler waters. Basically, strong surface winds and larger ocean waves mix the surface waters with cooler, deeper waters resulting in reduced potential energy and thereby place a "cap" on how strong the tropical cyclone can develop.

Tuesday 11 p.m. update from the NHC
Tuesday 11 p.m. update from the NHC

Anyhow, we have seen this phenomena of upwellings in the past and know, that once the storm starts to move away from the cooler water the tropical cyclone will intensify. I believe there is a chance Chris may become a category 2 hurricane briefly before traveling far enough out to sea to reach colder waters. Chris therefore will likely reach maximum strength on Wednesday evening, far, far away from the United States.

TRACK THE STORM: The Weather Authority''s Hurricane section

Meanwhile, the leftovers of Beryl are rapidly moving through the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where they can expect heavy rains and gusty winds. The National Hurricane Center believes there is a 50% chance that at some point, Beryl's leftovers will slow down and become organized again. This could take place about 350 miles east of Jacksonville, again, some time on Wednesday or Thursday. Yet, based upon the latest forecast models that track deep tropical moisture it is unlikely this will happen and wind shear and drier air will put whatever spark there is for a comeback in Beryl's leftovers.

Stay tuned!

Remnants of Beryl will spread rain over the Bahamas before emerging north of the Islands Thursday where it could redevelop as a tropical system again.
Remnants of Beryl will spread rain over the Bahamas before emerging north of the Islands Thursday where it could redevelop as a tropical system again.

 

 


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