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Is the sleeping Atlantic hurricane season about to wake up?

Peak season arrives in September

September is the peak of the hurricane season and models suggest we could see Atlantic storms after Labor Day.
September is the peak of the hurricane season and models suggest we could see Atlantic storms after Labor Day.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla – The quiet period in the Atlantic this hurricane season may start to awake as we head into the busiest part over the next few weeks.

August is typically the second most active month of the season but not this year.

A remarkably quiet trend set in after Hurricane Chris weakened to a tropical storm over the north Atlantic. 

That happened on July 12, and since then there has not been one hurricane in the Atlantic.

Only three other years have marked such a dearth without hurricanes between July 13 - August 27.

But as we move into September’s hurricane season peak, models are hinting at an increase in activity around the main develop region, or MDR, which covers the ocean from the Lesser Antilles to just off Africa. 

10 Day ECMWF forecast shows 40% chance off development in the central Atlantic and anotehr system impacting the Gulf or Bahamas.
10 Day ECMWF forecast shows 40% chance off development in the central Atlantic and anotehr system impacting the Gulf or Bahamas.

Several tropical waves this year have failed to organize due to dry air and above average surface pressures in the MDR. 

A flurry of tropical waves are expected to emerge off the coast of western Africa, some of which could develop into a tropical cyclone after Labor Day.

Often large atmospheric patterns across the globe affect the Pacific and Atlantic inversely.  

The 2018 Northeast Pacific has generated more major hurricane days through August 23 than any other season on record resulting in its second most accumulated storm energy rating called ACE.

For comparison, the Northeast Pacific has generated an ACE score of 146.6 verses a paltry three in the Atlantic. 

Since 2002, this is the least ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season covering July 16 through August 23. 

Both Hurricane Chris and Beryl only muster a handful of ACE units due to being short lived and weak.

AS the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enters an active phase over the Atlantic Ocean, an uptick in activity will likely coincide with the favorable month of September.
 


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