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Dorian's giant cone of uncertainty, Florida's Peninsula

GFS goes north and Euro goes south Dorian to decide

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has its hands full, once again. They have literally placed the entire peninsula of the State of Florida within the "cone of uncertainty". From Southeast Georgia to the Upper Keys. That's about 400 miles from one side of the "cone" to the other.

Are we missing anyone?  Maybe Key West.
Are we missing anyone? Maybe Key West.

You can bet the folks at the NHC are struggling with their decision as it cost significant amount of millions of dollars to each local county to enact the State of Emergency. 

So, what gives? 

Well, even as 5 day hurricane track model errors are seemingly shrinking every year, Dorian has created a dilemma for the models.

The two best known Global Forecast Models (EURO / GFS) split, leaving the entire state in the cone of uncertainty.
The two best known Global Forecast Models (EURO / GFS) split, leaving the entire state in the cone of uncertainty.

It has split the two most well-known models, the European forecast model and the Global Forecast System (GFS). Each one is conjuring up some terrible impacts on Florida.

The GFS is implying that between 10-20" of rain will fall around the Jacksonville area of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. This after 100 mph winds rip through the Coastal counties from Flagler to Camden County Georgia.

GFS tracks Dorian to North Florida and is immediately pounded with flooding rains.
GFS tracks Dorian to North Florida and is immediately pounded with flooding rains.

Meanwhile, the Euro for the 5th model run in a row, wants to push a category 3-4 hurricane (winds 125 mph or higher) into South Central Florida around West Palm Beach. The wind damage in that part of the State would be in the 10s of billions of dollars.

So, what do you do at the NHC? You cover all possibilities and hope for the best.

Back to the forecast models.

As of 3 am, all the big models have come out and have refused to "blink" to the other's superiority. And so, once again, the GFS pushes out nearly plus 10" of rain on Jacksonville, all the while the European model forecasts Dorian to wipe out a chunk of South Florida.

As each day goes by more and more data will be collected and so the theory goes, with more data, the more likely the models will get it right.

Friday will be a very important day for the Global Forecast Models and Dorian will ultimately impact.

Next 10 Days, a mini-mini-nor'easter on Friday followed by a "pause" and then...
Next 10 Days, a mini-mini-nor'easter on Friday followed by a "pause" and then...

 


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