JACKSONVILLE, Fla – It is the busiest day of the year for hurricanes...statistically speaking.
September 10th marks the day in the year when the Atlantic hurricane season has averaged the greatest number of tropical systems.
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The peak is due to ocean water temperatures reaching their warmest, along with a drop in unfavorable shearing winds aloft. These conditions favor the growth of tropical waves that frequently march across the Atlantic in mid to late September which seed developing tropical cyclones.
While conditions are most favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes on the 10th of September, it doesn't guarantee there will be an active named storm.
Currently, however, four tropical systems are being closely monitored including Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the North Atlantic. This storm packing 50 mph (ca. 80 km/h) winds will head to the chilly hurricane graveyard near Ireland Thursday.
Three other tropical waves have the potential for developing including a feature approaching the southeastern Bahamas that should boost rain and breeze across Florida including Jacksonville by the end of the week.
Farther out in the central Atlantic, 94L will pass close to the Lesser Antilles islands by the end of the week but may not organize due to moderate wind shear over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 20%, respectively.
What could become the next name on the Atlantic list, Humberto, may be a long way out from a tropical wave leaving the African coast.
It is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days with some slow development possible late this week and over the weekend.