JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed late Monday morning in the far eastern Atlantic, south of the Cabo Verde islands.
At 11 p.m., Lorenzo was strengthening about 270 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The storm was moving west at 15 mph with 50 mph winds. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 90 miles.
A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands Monday night.
Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, as intensification is expected. The current minimum central pressure was 1002 mb as of 11 p.m. Monday.
The system was designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher.
The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA.
All that means, is that Lorenzo will remain a large tropical cyclone and by Wednesday, a Major Hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.