JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – In just the past week we have seen a strong Category 1 Hurricane (Hanna) make a direct hit on South Texas, flooding rains, wind damage was significant. Meanwhile, the Hawaiian Islands had a very close call with a large hurricane that just passed north of the islands.
But it’s 2020... And only July with both these events happening within 24 hours.
That brings us to the next possible storm system. Designated 92L by the National Hurricane Center this large but organized system continues to swirl its way westward towards the Leeward Islands. All of the current short term forecast models are in tight agreement that this system will remain rather loose and without a core. A core is a center that has consolidated areas of intense rainfall and winds.
We’ve seen a shift in the Euro model, previously the Euro kept the system weak and disorganized and moving into the Gulf. Now the Euro has shifted more Northward, bringing the system into South Florida.
The GFS still turns the storm Northward into the Atlantic, but now shows the system closer to the coastline of Florida.
It’s still too soon to tell if the system will impact us locally, we will keep you updated as the forecast becomes more clear, which should be Wednesday or Thursday.
If this develops as expected it would become the ninth tropical depression of the season and Tropical Storm Isaias.
Latest National Hurricane Center discussion:
“An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today.”
Formation chance through 48 hours: 80%.
Formation chance through five days: 90%.