New thunderstorm warnings rank severe dangers

Threat levels from NWS provide more detail on the risks of potential storm impacts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for St Johns was loaded with hail and gusty winds over 58 mph on August 18, 2020. New tags get specific on warning threats starting in April.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Hundreds of severe thunderstorm warnings occur every year in the area watched by the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville.

The warnings alert people of severe storms that are capable of producing hail or high winds.

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Beginning on April 28, people will get enhanced warnings that include a ranking of impending hail or wind dangers in the alert messaging.

Storms with the most destructive damage threats will be tagged with a message indicating 2.75 inch+ diameter hail (baseball-sized or larger) and/or 80 mph+ thunderstorm winds.

The next threshold down could entail considerable damage threats if the NWS expects 1.75 inch diameter hail (golf ball-sized) and/or 70 mph - 79 mph thunderstorm winds.

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Storms go severe when winds reach above 58 mph or have hail an inch or larger. The new details will help contrast those severe storms from more destructive storms, which tend to be less common but pack a big punch.

The greater Jacksonville area is a hot spot for thunderstorms, and some years there are more severe storm warnings than days in a year. In 2008, we saw 398 severe thunderstorm warnings, but two years later it dropped to 163.

Why? Because in 2010 the National Weather Service raised the threshold for severe thunderstorms from ¾-inch hail to an inch-sized hail or larger.

This reduced the fatigue of frequent warnings and more importantly focused on one inch hail size, which research shows to be the minimum threshold for property damage.

So far this year, 15 severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued and the summer rainy season has yet to begin. When it does, hopefully none reach the Most Destructive Damage level but, if they do, the Weather Authority will be tracking them.


About the Author

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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