A small and weak area of low pressure with limited shower and thunderstorm activity is passing near the Cape Verde Islands. The National Hurricane Center says significant development of this system is not expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
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A trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and some slow development is possible early next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Formation chance through 48 hours - 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days - 20 percent.
A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours - 30 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days - 60 percent.
August is known as a favorable environment for tropical development as ocean water temperatures tend to be the warmest. Tropical waves have an easier time holding together while moving away from the Cape Verde islands.
On average, only two named storms develop in the Atlantic before August 1st arrives. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season was quite active, with a record-setting 9 named storms through the start of August.
August typically has three new named storms form. Storms that may form in August will likely develop in three regions of the central Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles and the western Atlantic stretching from the Bahamas northward along Florida and up to the Carolinas.