Get ready for a warm and dry winter

Double dip La Niña returns

This U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains.

NOAA released the 2021 Winter Outlook which keeps Florida warmer and drier from December 2021 through February 2022.

The climate signals point to the strongest warming potential targeting Florida and the southeast.

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This year the confidence is higher for us to see below-normal rain chances around 40-50%. Second winter in a row La Niña to develop through Spring 2022.

Seasonal forecasters point to another La Niña which is what we saw last year when chillier than average Pacific water temperatures sent the global jet stream askew locking up colder temperatures across the Pacific NW and northern plains.

This pattern is expected once more this winter which is not good news for the southwestern parts of the country and southern plains battling an ongoing drought. Much of the western half of the U.S. could see more dry days ahead.

La Nina patterns typically shift the rain patterns farther north, reducing wet weather around Florida and southern Georgia.

This is the second consecutive year where La Niña has developed. The colder than average water in the equatorial Pacific is in contrast to a warm phase called El Niño which can cause severe winter storms in Florida.

These phases have come and gone for decades and are unrelated to overall human induced climate change.

The impact of climate change does not have any effect between oscillating La Niña or El Niño modes (ENSO) according to NOAA Meteorologist Russel Vose.

But it is important to distinguish that long term climate change is warming the global temperature averages regardless of the variability between the two ENSO phases.


About the Author:

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.