Hurricane drone improves hurricane forecasts

Gathering data in most dangerous parts of storms

Study Co-author Joe Cione holding a Coyote drone in front of a NOAA P-3 aircraft. (NOAA HRD)

There are some places including right at the ocean surface where hurricane hunter aircraft just shouldn’t fly into when studying storms.

Waves can jump more than 60 feet in the air and salt spray can cause engine fires.

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This makes it all too dangerous for manned aircraft observations flying that low to the ocean, yet this is the zone where data is critical for understanding the intensification process in hurricanes.

Scientists are now using small drones to survey hurricanes and the information they stream back have shown remarkable improvements to forecasts in a recent research paper by the Hurricane Research Division. 

During Hurricane Maria in 2017, the Coyote drone measured wind speed, temperature, moisture, and pressure, several times a second for up to one hour.

The data was assimilated into weather computer models providing a stunningly realistic view of the hurricane’s eyewall.

Comparison of best analyses and observations from Hurricane Maria on 23 September 2017 using all the data available. (a) analyzed radar reflectivity pattern, (b) observed reflectivity pattern from the NOAA P-3’s tail Doppler Radar along with wind velocity 2 km above the ocean surface, (c) analyzed wind speed 2-km above the ocean surface, and (4) observed wind speed from the NOAA P-3 tail Doppler radar.

For the first time ever high-resolution Coyote observations were added to the NOAA’s Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting (HWRF) model while also streamlining the process by eliminating unnecessary data.

The end result was a large improvement to pinpointing Hurricane Maria’s position, intensity, and structure.

The stream of information was so comprehensive that models were able to integrate data every 5 minutes compared to assimilating every 6 hours.


About the Author

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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