The first seasonal hurricane forecast from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was issued Monday, predicting another overly active season. This year is forecast to be the seventh consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
The forecast gives a range of 14-21 total named storms with 6-10 becoming hurricanes along with the potential for 3 to 6 major hurricanes with winds at or higher than 157 mph.
This year would follow the third most active year on record in 2021 based on 21 named storms that occurred through the year using up the entire list of names. 2021 was the first time on record that two consecutive hurricane seasons exhausted the list of 21 storm names.
The anticipated activity is attributed to the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.
An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.
These factors were cited as factors in the above average seasonal prediction issued earlier by Colorado State University.
CSU released its first extended-range forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on April 7, calling for 19 named systems, 9 hurricanes and 4 major storms. They will announce a final preseason outlook on June 2
Remember these outlooks represent overall seasonal activity and are not a landfall forecast. It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now.