Seasonal forecast brings double the hurricane risk to the East Coast

7th above-average season in a row expected

While only one storm typically forms in June and July, 75% of all tropical activity kicks in after July.

The Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t had a quiet storm season in a long time, and this year is forecast to kick into overdrive in the next three months.

The past six consecutive years have all been busier than normal — a streak never attained before. The latest forecast from NOAA says this trend will continue for the seventh year and the East Coast of the United States is at greater risk than the Gulf.

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In active years, many more storms are likely to develop closer to the east coast of the United States, leading to a higher risk of landfall, according to Dr. Matthew Rosencrans at NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

A season is considered active when its Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is over 130. This is shorthand for accounting for a storm’s wind energy with time and provides a handy gauge for summarizing the power in each of the storms. The total ACE expected by NOAA is between 115%-200%

A hurricane landfall in the Gulf is almost always the case in active ACE years, but the probability of a strike along the east coast of the United States doubles.

Looking at the history of storms since 1950 shows active eras cause one and a half more major Category 3 strength or higher hurricanes.


About the Author:

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.