Tropical cyclone fails to become Danielle, drought continues

Saturday morning’s Hurricane Hunter flight found a closed circulation but weakened wind field

Early indications are a slight circulation has formed, but max winds are far from the center.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin was on July 2nd, when Colin formed and dissipated in 18 hours. Womp, womp, in my 40 years watching the tropics, this “shorty” would have never been named until the recent decade. Technology and strict adherence to what defines a tropical cyclone have added quite a few named systems that would have never been named in the past. Interestingly, even as we have seen a rapid increase in named tropical cyclones each season, we have only seen a slight uptick in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.

Ok, more on that later; Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is located in the Bay of Campeche, just off the Mexican coastline.

Hurricane Hunters this morning went out and were underwhelmed

The hurricane hunters and the radars along the Mexican coastline (very few operating there) show that although there now appears to be a weak circulation center, maximum winds are more than 100 miles to the northeast of the broad and diffuse center.

Though there is still some available time for PTC4 to develop into Danielle, the structure is too disorganized for development before making landfall.


I am sure there is some frustration for the seasonal hurricane forecasters, as this will be another decent possibility that got away.

Any other candidates out over the Atlantic Ocean?

Yes, but the two global forecast models, the EURO and GFS, are wildly divergent.

The GFS wants to develop a new system in the Eastern Gulf by Friday, along with two weaker systems over the Atlantic Ocean. The Euro does not develop anything in the Gulf of Mexico, keeps the westernmost system in the Atlantic weak, and moves it northward. But does develop significantly, the third system in the central Atlantic ocean.

The Euro model has better consistency, and at the moment, I would look to that model for guidance,

BTW, both models push heavy rainfall potential across Florida from Tuesday to the following Monday (8 days out).

Footnote: There was another similar system last weekend that powered up just before making landfall across South Texas, another “shorty” that could have been counted to this year’s anticipated hyperactive hurricane season but came ashore too soon to be named.

Three possible areas to watch, one could be impacting the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, with two others well out over the Atlantic Ocean.
Ignores any development in the Gulf of Mexico, focuses on a system currently over Africa, but moves into the heart of the Main Development Region for tropical cyclones.