A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data and radar images from Barbados indicate that this system does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over open waters while moving generally westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. An Air Force reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, if necessary.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.