NOAA predicts above-average seasonal temperatures for our areas in the Southeast and the potential for rain to cause minor flooding over the next three months.
NOAA’s 2022-23 spring outlook hinges much of the prediction on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern across the Pacific.
The end of La Nina’s cooler water in the Pacific Ocean means we are headed into a ENSO-neutral transition period between El Nino and La Nina into the early summer with elevated chances of El Nino developing thereafter.
This pattern promotes above-average temperatures for Florida and much of the southern and eastern half of the U.S, and near-normal rainfall for our area.
A full switch to El Nino by the summer would typically lower the hurricane development for the upcoming hurricane season.
Minor flooding will be possible across the Sante Fe and St. Marys rivers through early April with a diminishing chance of flooding late April into May.
Precipitation over the next three months is expected to be normal across interior portions of the region.
All the abundant rain in California will help the drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months, according to NOAA’s spring outlook.